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As is tradition, Red Star elevated chances for a new character were broken on release.

On Friday an inbox message went out stating that Iron Fist [WWII] was now available at a 15% drop rate. The orb banner art was updated to show IF WWII. The orbs showed an elevated drop rate, though not the 15% advertised.

There are currently 225 characters available in Red Star orbs. Examining the orbs showed 223 characters at .39%, with Titania at 12.68% and IF WWII at 13.16%. This is impossible.

223 characters at .39% gives you an 86.97% chance.

86.97% + 12.68% + 13.16% gives you 112.81%. That's not how math works. How can we explain the discrepancy? I see two possible explanations.

Option 1:

  • 100% - Titania's 12.68% is 88.32%.
  • 88.32% of 224 characters (including IF WWII) gives you a .3943% chance per character, which rounds down to the advertised .39%.

Option 2:

  • Scopely has some sort of safety built-in that doesn't allow percentages greater than 100%.
  • 223 characters at .39% gives you an 86.97% chance.
  • Titania's 12.68% + 86.97% gives you 99.65% total.
  • This leaves a .35% chance to pull IF WWII, which is the opposite of a boosted drop rate.

As far as I know, there has been no official acknowledgement of this issue. At what point will Scopely take some ownership of this repeated problem?

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Originally posted by thejimbo56

I know better than to expect a response from actual Scopely representatives. u/CM_DrunkenCereBRO or u/CM_AcheyAnus can one of y'all weigh in here?

Sure. What’s your favorite flavor for a slushie commander?

Originally posted by thejimbo56

Fruit punch, I’m pretty basic.

It’s not that basic commander. Fruit punch really get be varied based on the percentage of cranberry or grape in each concoction.

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