As is tradition, Red Star elevated chances for a new character were broken on release.
On Friday an inbox message went out stating that Iron Fist [WWII] was now available at a 15% drop rate. The orb banner art was updated to show IF WWII. The orbs showed an elevated drop rate, though not the 15% advertised.
There are currently 225 characters available in Red Star orbs. Examining the orbs showed 223 characters at .39%, with Titania at 12.68% and IF WWII at 13.16%. This is impossible.
223 characters at .39% gives you an 86.97% chance.
86.97% + 12.68% + 13.16% gives you 112.81%. That's not how math works. How can we explain the discrepancy? I see two possible explanations.
- 100% - Titania's 12.68% is 88.32%.
- 88.32% of 224 characters (including IF WWII) gives you a .3943% chance per character, which rounds down to the advertised .39%.
- Scopely has some sort of safety built-in that doesn't allow percentages greater than 100%.
- 223 characters at .39% gives you an 86.97% chance.
- Titania's 12.68% + 86.97% gives you 99.65% total.
- This leaves a .35% chance to pull IF WWII, which is the opposite of a boosted drop rate.
As far as I know, there has been no official acknowledgement of this issue. At what point will Scopely take some ownership of this repeated problem?External link →