devtrackers.gg
Using the info in the 1/22/2025 article on emblem point progression, I went through my game history to figure out what my point total was.
I went into this week with a point total of 141, and so far I have 47 wins and still don’t have the emblem.
Before you say “iT’s rNg bRo” please consider this:
With a 99.9% confidence interval, and assuming a drop chance of 14.1% (141/1000), I would’ve expected to get it after 45.449 attempts:
0.141^n < 0.001
n * log(0.141) < log(0.001)
n > log(0.001) / log(0.859)
n > 45.449
Confidence intervals of of 99% or even 95% are generally used, 99.9% is just to show how crazy this is.
And this doesn’t even take into account the escalating chance from additional points earned this week. (I currently have 207). Nor does it take into account my not getting it in weeks 1 and 2 (51 wins in those weeks after going on at least a 5-streak).
The thing is, I looted the lighthouse chests in Week 1 as Titan, Week 2 as Hunter, and Week 3 as Warlock (because I wanted the armor sets; I played Week 1 as Titan, Week 2 as mostly Hunter and some Titan, and Week 3 as Hunter).
So I suspect there’s something going on with the emblem chance. It could be that the point total:
-- isn’t carrying over across weeks
-- is being stored independently across characters (like with Eyes of Tomorrow, fixed after the 3/18/21 TWAB)
-- is resetting when a different class makes the streak or loots the streak chest.
Has anyone else who’s been playing Trials with different characters noticed anything off about the new emblem drop?
EDIT: As Mercules explained, the drop chance increase isn't linear. 1000 points is 100% but 141 points is not 14.1%.
External link →