about 1 year ago - EVE Online - Direct link

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0s from the deepest data mines of new Eden
3s please put your hands together for CCP
6s Bjorn and CCP estimate
46s hello hello hello hello
51s yeah the front right hello
53s hello
56s is it working
57s okay so good good morning everyone
59s welcome to fun fact
60s I am yeah yeah that's where we're going
62s now imcb estimate data scientist here at
65s tgb I've been uh and a part of the
68s analytics Department the analytics
71s department has been part of CHP ever
72s since cgp hired a doctor and
76s economics to monitor the health of the
79s economy
80s and the Crown Jewel of the data
83s department has always been the economic
85s report so I'm going to take you through
86s a brief history of the report
89s the origin of the report dates back to
92s 2007 when we released the quarterly
94s economic newsletters
96s which are a few page reports with
98s detailed descriptions on the state of
100s the economy I'm not sure how many of you
102s remember this port but we in the data
105s Department we are lucky to have CCP
107s recurved still with us who keeps printed
110s versions of these reports as a task
113s these reports they showed
117s they showed the development of the
119s economy some graphs showing for example
121s the value distribution the mineral price
124s indexes
127s the type 2 module prices and differences
130s in in prices between regions
132s we however start releasing these reports
135s in 2010 after releasing about 14 of
138s those because it took so long to create
141s one of these reports it wasn't until
143s five years later we created something
146s similar which was in evacus where we
148s introduced the monthly economic report
150s uh the report was written in our using
155s ggplot2 to create the visualizations and
157s over the next four years it got more and
159s more difficult to maintain these reports
161s as you can see on the on this chart the
164s average release date of the reports went
166s from fourth of the month all the way to
168s 12th of the month in 2019.
172s for seeing the difficulty of running the
174s reports we decided in 2020 to start a
177s full rewrite of the report we wanted to
180s replace r with python and Align data
184s sources with the new data pipelines that
185s were being built the first three python
188s generated charts were introduced in 2021
192s and
194s the final transformation was completed
196s in 2022.
198s during the process we removed 12 graphs
200s and update eight mining graphs which we
203s thought was a better indicator of the
204s health of the economy
206s as you can see there was a significant
208s Improvement in the release of the Emir
211s after we finish the transformation and
213s now we plan to release this report
216s uh in the first few days of the month
218s similar to what what it was back in
220s 2016.
223s uh
224s the latest additions to the mer have
226s been Darth Maul charge warmer statistics
229s LP by region
231s battle statistics and ESS numbers
233s and today we have released more than 2
236s 900 graphs through the mer
239s this figure shows all of those charts
242s the blue ones represent python are
244s generated graphs while the yellow ones
246s represent python generated graphs and
248s occasionally
250s graphs didn't make it to the release and
252s those are represented as empty boxes
255s some have stayed in the mer the whole
257s time and one of which is the production
260s destruction Minecraft
261s which we can see here on the animation
263s how it has evolved over the years we
266s have changed the coloring a bit we
268s changed some Minor Details In the graph
270s and added some annotations then in 2022
274s when you finished the python
275s transformation
277s we added dark mode versions and then
280s some details on security band
284s the latest additions as I said earlier
286s were mining charts is particles and
288s warmers and to create one of these
290s graphs in the mer we are using the
293s plotly graphing Library
295s and it it is quite the iteration of
297s going through and iterating and trying
300s to get the design to look up to the
302s standards required for uh to be released
305s this animation is playing on screen it's
307s showing one of those iterations where we
309s are creating the wormhole
312s flowchart where we wanted to visualize
314s how items move through warmer space
318s but even though I think this
320s visualization looks great at the end
322s some CSI members thought this could be
325s summarized with a pie chart
329s oh
330s we we had to fix this I wonder if
334s if the CSI member was just getting
336s trying to get me to put one of these
338s summarization charts it was at least a
340s yeah
343s but the mayor has changed quite a bit
345s over the years but by no means is it
347s perfect item pricing for example is one
350s thing that we need that we need to work
353s on
354s there are multiple sources of Truth or
356s pricing an item in Eve you can use cgb
358s kill mail pricing you can use set kill
360s board pricing you can use manufacturing
362s costs and average market prices and
365s various charts in the Army are used
366s different prices so we want to we want
369s to fix that
370s uh with growing significance of
372s factional warfare we want to add some
373s more details on Faction Warrior so you
375s can see how many loyalty points are
377s being generated
378s ultimately we would like other people to
380s be able to recreate the crafts that we
383s are creating in the mer so we would want
385s to improve the data sources and perhaps
388s open source some of the code that is
390s used to generate the graphs
391s ultimately or of course we just want to
394s add more charts to the ml we want to add
396s something that keeps the monthly
398s economic report interesting and keeps
401s the conversation going around the
402s economy
405s in the past we have added some extra
408s charts to the Emer that were not meant
410s to be permanent but more thought of an
412s awesome
414s good at good addition every now and then
417s and one of those charts is the
420s cumulative valid distribution
423s and every time we post one of these we
425s get questions what defines space rich
429s what what is needed to be part of the
431s one percent in evil land
434s and when I was reading through 2007
437s quarterly economic newsletters I noticed
439s that we actually we showed this data
441s back then so I looked in a database and
444s believe it or not we have nearly 20
447s years of wealth distribution data
450s so on the screen is the value
453s distribution E1 line all wallet disk so
456s only is isk balance
458s pair account and back in 2004 the
462s average or mean account had about 35
465s million Skinner wallets and the top one
467s percent had 43 billion
470s this change quite a bit over the years
471s in 2010 it was about 200 million and in
475s 2023 today is about 630 millionisk the
480s top one first hour is holding about 123
484s billion Skinner wallets
486s and as you can see in this one we're
488s visualizing the top one percent you can
490s see that the top one percent their
492s wealth increased or their wallet is
494s toppled between 2014 and 2018 from 60
498s billion to 120 billion
501s but I know what they're all asking now
502s this is only isk balance what about
505s total wealth
506s well this figure shows the distribution
509s of total wealth
510s for all where we include Ishq items and
514s Plex
516s and to keep the consistency we're still
518s only looking at accounts so after three
521s quarters the meanwhile is about
527s 4.4.9 billion and the top one percent is
530s sitting at 100 billion worth of assets
532s but we can do better than that we know
535s that most Eve players they have more
537s than one account
538s so let's look at the voltage vision for
541s all Eve players accumulation of all
543s their accounts
545s all players
547s so here things change quite a bit the
550s mean
551s account
552s mean if Carter or e-player has about 9
556s billion worth of assets while the
557s average is about 42 billion
560s the top five percent has a net worth of
563s 168 billion
565s the top one percent
567s has a little little below one half a
570s trillion worth of assets
572s the top 0.1 percent has a staggering 1.9
576s trillion
579s and the top 0.01 has at least 6.5
583s trillion worth of assets but keep in
586s mind
587s the average age of these accounts is 12
589s years
590s so now I'm going to hand the mic over to
593s CCB burn who's going to continue with
595s these interesting statistics on all of
596s you
600s there you go
602s thank you
604s thank you CCP estimate hello everyone
607s and welcome to Fan Fest uh now let's
610s dive straight back into some more
613s numbers
614s 25 million 969
618s 962 any castes to what this number
621s uh refers to
625s you're very close total number of
627s accounts are heard this is a total
628s number of characters created since May 6
631s 2003.
633s uh every character ever created
636s now this is roughly equivalent to the
638s current population of Australia uh which
641s is good
643s and this comes down to roughly 1.2
645s million characters created every year
648s uh 3500 characters created every day
652s and
655s that equates to the birth rate of Turkey
658s that's good
660s uh and 2.36 characters added to the meat
664s grinder every minute of every day
667s which is a staggeringly high number even
670s though it's small
671s now this is the total split between the
674s empires or the races as you can see
676s caltari comes out on top with 33 percent
678s of all characters created uh galante in
681s second place and Minar namara are fairly
683s even with roughly 18 percent
686s now this is the split between the blood
688s clients and interestingly galante
689s galante comes out on top as the most
691s preferred bloodline out of all of them
695s uh however it's probably better to
697s visualize this throughout time and even
700s though this tells you something it's
701s even better to see it if you contrast it
704s next to one another and overlay it
706s and what's interesting here for instance
707s is that you can see that kaltari used to
709s be the uh the most popular up until 2011
713s roughly 2010 then up until 2018 calente
718s took over as the favorite you can see
720s the huge spike in the picture there is
722s when Eve went three to play but yeah
725s then in 2018 kaltari took over again uh
728s while Omar and minimotar have been
730s relatively similar throughout the entire
732s period
734s now this is the 20-year anniversary of
735s Eve online so we in the data team
737s naturally thought to ourselves uh how
739s much 20 year old data do we have or
742s better yet what data exists without gaps
745s from 2003 May 2003.
748s now there isn't a lot but there is still
751s some uh we have character Creations we
754s have user account Creations Corporation
756s membership records Alliance membership
758s Records Office rentals
761s formal work declarations roles granted
764s to Corporation members online player
766s count cumulative law conservation for
768s users and sales data
771s and one of the like there is of course
774s more but this is probably the most
775s shareable and interesting data points
777s and one of the data points that really
778s piqued my interest when I was looking
780s into this was date of birth
782s now it's something that we've been
784s collecting since 2003 uh it used to be a
788s registration requirement all the way up
790s to 2016 when we pulled it out to
793s streamline the registration process
795s uh and then up until this year we
798s allowed it as an optional entry point on
800s the account management page when we
802s removed it entirely because it wasn't
804s really that used and the reason why it's
807s not that much used is of course because
810s it's it's player entered it's prone to
812s error you can just submit whatever you
814s want and there's no way for us to
816s validate if the date of birth you enter
817s is actually correct but still a very
820s common question we get in analytics is
822s how old is the or how what's the average
824s age of an eve player and it's also a fun
827s way to uh see how analytics work
831s and now usually when you start or often
834s when you start plotting data it looks
835s like this
837s like absolute trash
839s and thank you for for this uh
842s but uh yeah we have a date range from
844s 1750 all the way to today the most
847s recent birth date we have in our system
849s is September 11 2023 so 11 days ago
855s so something is very wrong here uh and
857s we can just if you know nothing about
859s the issue you can just start by saying
860s okay the oldest player was probably not
863s more than a hundred when the game was
865s released so you can limit the access to
867s 1903
868s still something very wrong there's like
870s one day there that triumphs all the rest
873s and if you knew nothing it would be hard
875s to analyze this data because the date is
877s January 1st 1978. so you're just like
880s why is that happening so you have to
883s know something you have to speak to some
885s people at TCP some gurus that know
886s something and it turns out that January
889s 1st 1978 was the default date in the
893s date of birth field so if you just
894s entered press submit that was the date
896s of birth you got not the best default
899s value if you think about it but uh there
902s you go so we remove that and you start
904s to get something going on in the picture
906s still it's kind of wrong uh so you might
910s see like what what's happening with all
912s these Peaks why are there these days
914s that kind of pop up uh way over the rest
917s and it turns out these are all January
919s 1st so like if people were even bothered
921s to edit anything in the date of birth
923s field they just edited the year they
925s didn't bother changing the the date
927s so just to kind of see better what's
930s going on we can remove these
932s but it's still kind of shitty uh so we
935s can just try to look at the distribution
938s from like where it roughly starts and
939s where it roughly ends so we can filter
941s the period down to 1953 to 2010. uh
945s still not great we can check out some of
947s these kind of Peaks see what's happening
949s February 2nd there's also a super
950s popular date so like if you edit the
952s date you added it to two and two from
955s one and one uh and the first five days
958s in a month are also very kind of
960s disproportionately popular given that
962s date of birth should randomly distribute
965s uh but perhaps not enough to remove them
967s as outliers so we just keep them uh like
971s if you're if you have issues with
973s individual dates the best way to fix
975s that is probably just to group by month
977s that's a great way to fix kind of the
978s errors that bring that you have on
980s individual dates and here we're starting
982s to see something something that's
984s starting to look like a probability
985s distribution you can probably work with
987s a little you can also tell yourself like
989s you're not really interested in uh which
992s month you're born in you might be
994s interested in a year so you can just
995s Group by that instead and you can see an
997s even clearer picture of what's Happening
999s and then you can also tell yourself like
1001s I'm not really interested if a player is
1002s like 23 24 25 but I'm interested in if
1006s it's in his 20s or 30s or 40s 50s so you
1009s can Group by age groups instead so you
1011s have like a decade long age group thing
1013s happening now this is probably to come
1015s complex for people to read so you
1017s simplify it into nice bars you slap some
1019s percentages on top and there you have
1021s the eve player 8 distribution 50 between
1025s 30 and 40 25 between 540 and 50 and the
1029s rest is distributed between the other
1031s buckets now it's very likely that we
1033s have some error here because we removed
1035s this field as a registration requirement
1037s in 2016 and we no longer provide the
1040s option to add it anywhere so you can
1042s always argue that the most recent
1044s players are probably younger on average
1046s but there you go
1048s uh another fun data point you get from
1050s user account creation is the country
1052s that the account was registered in now
1054s personally I don't think this is the
1056s most interesting data point because uh
1060s the the United States makes up 25 of our
1063s active player base so they just they
1065s always try and in every statistic where
1067s you look at countries but what is
1069s interesting is that the US was not
1072s always on top for two days like the
1075s first day Eve came out and the second
1077s day it came out the UK was number one
1079s even I'm a round of applause
1083s and perhaps more interestingly Iceland
1086s was number two
1088s for a day
1089s probably our greatest achievement after
1091s coming in second at the team handpol in
1094s the Beijing Olympics in 2008
1097s and here you can see uh their trajectory
1100s what's happening
1101s it starts up slowly you can see Iceland
1103s trickling down the list
1106s but also a massive achievement we stayed
1109s in the top 20 up until
1111s 20078. lovely
1114s and then it just goes up pretty fast you
1116s can see the other countries kind of
1117s taken over
1121s and there you go now the top top 20
1124s countries to me at least are not that
1126s interesting but the bottom 20. that's
1129s interesting shout out to the two users
1132s created in Saint Helena Ascension and
1134s Tristan tekuna
1136s I don't even barely know where there is
1138s but there you go
1142s um also very interesting about this is
1144s that Antarctica doesn't even make the
1146s bottom 20.
1148s 438 user accounts have been created in
1151s Antarctica
1153s uh uh which is crazy
1157s but what declarations uh the first
1159s formal formal word Declaration was
1162s declared on May 16th at seven o'clock in
1165s 2003.
1167s the there have been 732 000 Wars
1170s declared in total 208 of them are
1173s currently active and the longest
1175s standing war in Eve's history was
1177s between the bad garistas Corporation and
1179s the head hunters it was declared on May
1182s 23 2005 and retracted on February 13
1186s 2019.
1188s which comes down to 13 years and 268
1192s days
1194s yes sir
1200s now these are all the wars that have
1202s been declared to new online uh grouped
1204s by month and colored by year
1205s however these are all awards that
1208s included active kills
1211s so
1213s I don't know if you can really call them
1214s Wars but you know uh we didn't start
1217s linking Wars to PVP kills until 2011 so
1221s that's why you don't see anything before
1222s that time
1223s but this obviously is not a big part of
1225s the daily PVP activity only 589 kills on
1229s average per day are linked to Wars
1231s formally declared Wars that is Which is
1234s less than three percent of total daily
1236s PVP kills
1239s office rentals uh there are 69 currently
1243s active office rentals yes yes it's a
1245s great number great number
1247s that are 20 plus years old more
1251s interestingly 45 percent of these belong
1254s to the Playboy Enterprises of the Dark
1256s Taboo Alliance
1259s I couldn't make this up if I wanted to
1262s uh
1265s so yeah there are 122 000 roughly
1268s currently active office rentals
1270s the highest current office rental price
1273s is perhaps not surprisingly in GTA 4 4.
1276s at around 20 billion Ishq per month
1280s so uh if you want to impress the in-laws
1283s you know where to rent an office
1286s uh these are the top three stations by
1289s currently active office rental
1290s agreements
1291s the top three systems
1294s the top three corporations
1296s the top three alliances
1299s and the count by security band
1302s well there you go
1304s another huge number
1307s four billion roughly this time any any
1309s guesses
1311s kills yeah not a bad guess but no this
1315s is the total hours of cumulative log on
1318s time for every user account
1320s ever in Eve
1324s oh
1325s this comes down to 460
1328s 000 years of log on time
1332s that is
1333s quite something give yourself a round of
1336s applause
1339s uh
1341s much smaller number but related to the
1343s one we saw earlier
1346s oh average I heard yes this is the
1348s average for every user can take all
1351s accounts their total uh log on duration
1353s and average it this might not seem like
1355s much but this is super high this
1358s includes every account that has no lock
1360s on time zero
1361s which there are some uh Believe It or
1364s Not of course your average everyone in
1367s this room in their accounts is a lot
1369s higher
1370s a lot
1373s again
1374s this is an average
1377s is or skewed so this is insanely High
1383s a very small number 18 any guesses
1387s per day no
1392s I was waiting for some obscenities while
1395s asking for suggestions on this but I'll
1397s give you a hint 18 420.
1401s 20 years maybe you know
1406s another hand two are here at FanFest
1414s I heard it
1416s I heard it in the audience
1418s 18 user accounts
1420s have been continuously subscribed
1422s without the day's break for more than 20
1425s years and two of the account owners are
1428s at Pinterest
1435s and Karsten the fourth and 13th longest
1439s running Subs currently 20.4 and 20.3
1443s years without a day's break
1446s well today like
1448s the poor people at like went on vacation
1451s for a few days they're not on the list
1453s because uh just no breaks and the
1455s special shelter to heavy hauler and also
1458s at Fan Fest uh he is at 19.8 years with
1461s the 21st sorry
1464s okay some error in the data apparently
1467s but you know
1468s but yeah here are the 18 subbed 420 Plus
1472s Round of Applause to these guys this is
1474s amazing
1478s are amazing
1483s 384 anybody familiar
1486s flyable ships any one line
1488s uh
1490s and here you have all of them
1492s bars indicating total quantity of active
1495s characters in a snapshot taken on
1496s September 9th last
1498s uh it's on a logarithmic scale so you
1500s better visualize the quantities
1502s otherwise it looks like this and you can
1503s barely see any differences between
1505s anything
1507s so again like active characters having a
1510s login Pro 30 days prior to the September
1512s 9th
1513s uh that's the total quantity in the bars
1515s and the coloring is an activity index
1517s It's a combination of activation shift
1520s activations on logon shift changed into
1522s events and gate jumps so the dark green
1525s much used ships dark orange barely no
1529s usage and white this somewhere in
1530s between and here you can see some
1532s examples
1533s hope you can read it
1536s I can see the letters are a little small
1538s now they were huge on my screen
1540s uh
1542s uh there you go you can see the Campion
1543s for instance at the at the lower right
1545s corner 12 items in total quantity of
1548s active characters no activations no
1551s changed into events and no kitchens
1553s perhaps not surprisingly
1554s uh here you can see a few interesting
1557s shapes now these uh there are kind of
1560s relatively a lot of but they're not used
1562s a lot relative to their neighbors so for
1565s instance you can see the miasmos quave
1566s ultra Edition there are thousands of
1568s those or 1000 sorry uh on active
1572s characters but no activation event on
1574s that day on September 9th so it's not
1576s used at all with a thousand active ships
1579s in use kind of
1581s uh while you can see the Bantam for
1584s instance It's relatively much used of
1586s course there are 2200 or 220 000 items
1589s but it's used more than its nearest
1592s Neighbors in terms of quantity
1595s here you can see the opposite so these
1596s are shapes that are kind of rare
1599s relative to their neighbors produce a
1601s lot
1602s if that makes sense so the Revenant for
1604s instance there are 110 of these for
1606s active players on September 9th but they
1609s still have 28 activations on lock on
1613s which is kind of high
1615s now these are the top tens for total
1618s quantity on active characters
1622s and these are the bottom 10.
1625s you see the Armageddon Imperial issue
1627s and the megathron Federation issue only
1629s one active uh shape on active characters
1632s on September 9th now these were not the
1634s only ships in evil line there are shapes
1636s that uh I wouldn't say are rarer than
1638s these but still you could maybe have a
1641s total item quantity within the game not
1643s just on active accounts that only goes
1645s down to one or two
1646s so there are some items laying on
1648s torment accounts but I thought it was
1649s more interesting to show you the active
1650s inventory
1652s now as you may have noticed the Venture
1655s top the list as the most uh or the
1658s highest quantity ship in the game for
1659s active accounts but it also takes the
1662s cake when you look at the entire history
1664s of item or inventory accounting all the
1667s way back to September 2013. if you take
1670s every day some month the entire
1672s inventory quantity for every day it
1674s comes out on top but this is not the
1676s only magic that it uh that it wins in
1680s it's also the highest in Market quantity
1683s all the way through history
1685s also the highest in stack quantity so
1688s like stacks and ships within them
1690s also the highest in Singleton quantity
1692s which meaning like non-stacked ships
1695s it's also the highest in shape
1697s activations on logon
1699s also the highest in shape changed into
1701s events
1703s and also highest in traded quantity
1707s however when it comes to traded value it
1710s falls off the list and is replaced by
1712s some Big Boys costing a little more
1714s Orca coming in at one
1717s now if you look at gate jumps the Estero
1720s is number one
1721s followed by The Venture
1723s and Tango
1725s ships produce the trusty rifter is
1727s number one all-time Productions of ships
1731s mind quantity the retriever
1739s apocalypse those people do people mine
1741s in this or
1743s someone ah
1746s characters distinct character count of
1749s characters using ships for PVE The Gila
1752s takes number one Ishita number two and
1755s they swap rolls when it comes to NPC
1757s kills in total
1762s and for PVE bounties earned the Ishtar
1765s stays and number one
1768s uh for but for player placed bounties
1770s earned uh the picture is very different
1772s the low-key text top one voltage follows
1776s LP earned from PvP kills The Thrasher is
1779s number one and then the Federation Navy
1781s comet
1784s total PVP Damage Done goes to the
1786s revelation
1789s so big soap ship
1791s uh but damage is not only important so
1794s is healing so uh for remote Hull
1797s repairing the archon is number one
1801s and remote armor repairing goes to the
1803s Nestor
1805s and remote Shield repairing goes to the
1807s scimitar
1810s for shift damage taken
1813s the Drake is number one
1818s that's a lot to carry
1821s uh
1822s but for shift that's ironically the
1825s Drake falls down into 13th Place and is
1827s replaced by The Catalyst I wonder why
1830s that ish
1833s uh
1836s for PVP kill assists the munin is number
1838s one Drake number two
1840s PVP final blows say press number one
1844s I preferred kills in total the Drake
1847s comes back on top so not only the most
1850s damage taken but also the most amount of
1853s kills collectively both assists and
1855s final blows
1856s ship is closed while flying in a ship
1859s goes to the Gila seconded by the tanku
1863s but most Ishq lost or is is gloss cost
1867s in PvP
1869s goes to the tornado all the way back to
1871s 2012.
1873s and to include it in one statistic the
1876s coolest looking shape in evil line I dug
1879s up the most Wormhole collapses cost goes
1882s to the megathron
1887s thank you
1889s but that's it for me there will be more
1891s data at Fan Fest we will have a booth in
1894s the tray top we'll be selling Concord
1897s capsule profiles customized Concord
1899s capsular profiles for uh for a little
1901s bit of money to support charity uh we
1904s will have a data panel today at 12 in
1907s the panel room on the second floor and
1909s we will have a live data AMA live data
1913s analytics with CCP lyric and CCP
1914s estimate tomorrow at 10 30 on the second
1918s stage do not miss that
1920s uh but that's it for me I have one video
1923s that I'm going to share in the end which
1925s I hope is fully self-explanatory if not
1928s you can try to find me the data Booth or
1929s around FanFest and ask me questions
1931s that's it thank you so much thank you
1933s for your attention enjoy FanFest
1961s thank you
2011s foreign
2085s foreign