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0s | how y'all doing |
---|---|
7s | what is stage |
9s | i told tcp they didn't have to do the |
10s | whole jita 4 thing just for me but then |
12s | they insisted so welcome to my house |
17s | this is what i do all day |
19s | trading |
21s | when they finally remodeled the station |
24s | i finally had something else to look at |
25s | because i don't undock so this is all i |
27s | see all day |
31s | all right so we're talking about trading |
34s | trust and trillions today |
37s | if |
38s | you don't know what i do i'm oz i |
40s | run eve's largest public investment fund |
44s | and that in itself shouldn't really be a |
46s | thing because |
47s | in eve you know you shouldn't be |
48s | trusting anyone especially not with your |
50s | isc but for some reason i was able to |
52s | convince a whole bunch of people to hand |
54s | me a lot of isk and i invested in the |
56s | gita market so for the next 45 minutes |
59s | i'm going to share a few stories uh |
62s | strategies and |
64s | internal things i do in eve online we'll |
67s | talk about how i built that trust |
70s | how i |
71s | get these these people to to hand me |
73s | their money |
74s | um |
76s | how i then take that money and invest it |
77s | in the markets |
79s | i'll share a little bit of the lessons |
80s | learned that i've um you know gathered |
82s | over the the last few years creating |
84s | content and uh and streaming eve online |
87s | and then if we have some time we should |
88s | have time like five minutes for a few |
90s | questions um uh if uh if if you'd like |
94s | otherwise there's a round table at um |
97s | i think 4 p.m in one of the breakout |
99s | rooms so if you want to come chat about |
101s | everything that we talk about here then |
103s | come find us there ccp psych and myself |
106s | are going to be there uh hanging out |
108s | all right |
109s | so i'm i'm oz i've been uh playing eve |
112s | since 2004. |
114s | i was already out of college uh in 2004 |
117s | so |
118s | by that you can calculate that i'm |
120s | really |
121s | old |
123s | um i i was in finance back then i i was |
126s | trading |
127s | in stocks |
129s | i i got a business degree and so from |
131s | day one i was into markets and trading |
134s | in eve online and |
136s | that part of eve online is really what |
139s | what i think is very unique |
141s | and that i can't find in any other game |
143s | this this player driven economy this |
146s | ability to actually trade to influence |
148s | the market uh very realistically it's um |
152s | it's just something that keeps me coming |
153s | back to eve online and um |
155s | and absolutely love it |
157s | i became a twitch streamer in 2019 |
160s | um and um you know i before that i |
164s | didn't even know what twitch was |
166s | but i realized that i could um share the |
168s | fairly unique play style that i uh that |
170s | i have and the tools that i have on on |
172s | twitch with my my viewership so i became |
174s | an uh an eve partner um and my guides on |
178s | trading are used in the eve academy so |
180s | i'm very very glad that um some of the |
183s | the tools and content that i produce are |
185s | um are being made uh you know accessible |
188s | for for the community and i'm |
190s | getting some |
191s | attention to a play style that's just |
193s | not very |
194s | uh i think not not not played by a by a |
197s | large percentage of the player base |
199s | i have a discord server of a whole bunch |
201s | of trading uh nerds and eve uh if you |
204s | google that i'm sure you'll find it uh |
205s | come come join 3 000 of us on on there |
209s | and i as i said i run the largest |
211s | investment fund in |
212s | in eve so |
214s | that's what we're going to be talking |
216s | about today quick disclaimer before i |
218s | jump on that |
219s | if you can't tell by the funny accent i |
221s | am german right so |
223s | just to manage expectations |
225s | there will be no jokes but we'll |
227s | probably finish on time all right so |
229s | bear with me |
233s | the motivation behind everything i do |
236s | is |
237s | threefold one |
238s | is |
239s | we're playing a sandbox all of us are |
241s | playing a sandbox and in a sandbox per |
243s | definition you should be able to do |
245s | almost anything that you want to do so |
247s | for me gaming competitive gaming meant i |
250s | wanted to be the best at something and |
252s | being all just means i can't keep up in |
254s | pvp |
255s | all right so what i can do is i can |
258s | spend some time creating amazing |
260s | spreadsheets um i can eke out an |
263s | advantage in the market and so that is |
266s | my way of creating something that |
268s | matters and that would that's what gives |
270s | back or motivates me every day to play |
272s | eve online |
274s | two i spend a lot of time |
276s | sharing or making tools for eve online |
280s | and that for the first few years maybe |
283s | that's a lot of fun and you can make a |
285s | lot of money in the market and it's |
286s | great |
287s | but after a while it just you know if |
289s | you're not if you're not telling anyone |
290s | and you're not sharing that experience |
292s | it just becomes kind of kind of kind of |
293s | planned so that's uh |
295s | one big motivation for me as well is to |
297s | go out there and share everything that |
299s | i've created and then |
301s | as i said earlier my playstyle is fairly |
304s | unique i don't leave the station i just |
306s | station trade i have a i have a lot of |
308s | capital to play with i uh play with the |
311s | market sometimes i manipulate the |
313s | markets |
314s | not gonna lie and |
317s | that is a playstyle that i want to |
319s | showcase because |
320s | it's it's out there i can't get it from |
322s | any other game right and i want |
325s | for one people to see it but also ccp to |
328s | see it you know for for for them to know |
330s | that there are people out there like us |
333s | that are playing the game in a way that |
334s | might not be the most obvious one |
336s | but is a very very important one to um a |
340s | a small but but important part of the |
342s | player base all right |
345s | so first of all |
347s | building trust so i said in the |
350s | beginning i run an investment fund i |
352s | have around four trillion isk that i |
354s | manage for about 500 investors and |
357s | that in itself shouldn't be possible in |
359s | eve online you shouldn't trust anyone |
361s | with you ask what are you guys doing why |
363s | are you giving me your money right like |
365s | this this should not be happening but |
367s | for some reason i was able to do that |
369s | and |
370s | there's three there's three reasons why |
372s | that works for one |
374s | i i put a face to the name right i i go |
377s | out there on saturdays on on twitch and |
380s | a lot of you have have seen my face uh |
382s | out there um |
384s | you know i uh i i i show i show you guys |
388s | my i talk about my motivations i i tell |
390s | tell you what to do and it's very very |
393s | or it's a lot more difficult to run away |
394s | with the money if you show your face all |
396s | the time and everyone knows what you |
398s | looks like right that's that's just |
400s | just just the general true truth |
403s | second of all |
404s | from from day one of this operation that |
407s | started about three years ago i |
409s | i'm sharing all my trade secrets that i |
411s | used to make money with so i am taking |
414s | away the whole amount of motivation that |
416s | you could think why i should be running |
417s | away with that money |
420s | by showing you all of the top |
423s | profitable items by sharing all my tools |
425s | but all of that so i have convinced |
427s | people that i'm just a generally nice a |
430s | genuinely nice guy and i don't need to |
432s | make isk right at least people believe |
435s | that it's it's true |
437s | trust me |
439s | um and then again it's not economically |
442s | feasible for me to run away with the |
443s | money because it's uh by now i i have a |
446s | little bit of a reputation um in in the |
449s | community i make you know |
451s | nobody's getting rich of a content |
453s | creation in e4 like there's one or two |
455s | people that can maybe live of it but |
457s | nobody's getting rich so i'm not getting |
458s | rich but it's at least enough for me not |
461s | to run away with the money because the |
462s | reputation that i've made is kind of |
464s | kind of beneficial to me |
467s | so putting a face the name as i said i i |
469s | stream on twitch so people know what i |
470s | look like |
472s | it's it's accountability it's building |
473s | up the first trust of course sometimes |
475s | it helps when people like hilmar |
478s | share my content and say |
480s | this is really good |
482s | i mean you know this is the guy with the |
484s | 20 swords that you saw |
486s | yesterday if he says it's good how bad |
488s | can it be you know this guy is not going |
490s | to run away with the money |
493s | the second part sharing secrets so |
496s | something i do um for example is every |
499s | year i show what the most profitable |
501s | items uh of in in trading were for me in |
504s | in that year right that's that would be |
506s | the number one rule of um uh that that |
509s | most traders will will not will not do |
511s | if they're if what their goal is is to |
513s | make money |
514s | it's really not that big of a deal but |
516s | it's a big like symbolic step right |
518s | and then more importantly maybe i have |
521s | created a together with with the |
524s | community i've created a a community |
526s | version of my trading spreadsheet that |
528s | will track your profits that will look |
530s | at your portfolio that will tell you |
532s | which items to buy currently |
534s | which items to sell on a technical |
536s | analysis basis right and |
539s | this tool is out there for download |
541s | thousands of people have downloaded it |
543s | you all can use it it's |
545s | it's free we maintain it a little bit |
547s | it's got an instruction in it so |
550s | the biggest hurdle for a lot of people |
552s | to go into station trading is |
554s | they know that they can't do it if they |
556s | don't know how to spreadsheet |
558s | be a spreadsheet warrior right |
561s | now the excel and implementation the |
563s | excel integration that we saw yesterday |
565s | is going to help sure uh in in breaking |
568s | down that barrier but until then you |
570s | have my spreadsheet to kind of |
571s | guide you in that world and most people |
573s | will start using that |
575s | and then move on to doing developing |
577s | their own tools or um |
579s | or or maybe even not maybe even just |
581s | continue doing that but they can station |
583s | trade without having that huge barrier |
586s | uh of of you know macros and and |
589s | javascript in front of them |
592s | um |
595s | i also talk about skill farming and |
596s | skill farming you know if you talk to |
599s | people in the in the communities it's |
601s | it's something that's a little bit |
602s | pushed to the side nobody really wants |
604s | to talk about it because it's like it's |
605s | it's a |
607s | it's it's a fairly unnatural play style |
609s | i would say it's not even a play style |
610s | it's a way for people to make money but |
613s | it's legal it's there people are doing |
615s | it and people are making a lot of money |
616s | with it and so |
617s | what |
618s | what i do to build trust |
620s | is i democratize that information right |
623s | so when i uh |
625s | when i started doing this investment |
627s | fund three years ago |
628s | i noticed that a lot of people were |
630s | talking on the on the down somebody is |
632s | all of a sudden selling you know |
633s | hundreds of skill injectors how did you |
634s | get them how does that work so |
637s | i show |
638s | what you need to do to set that up and i |
641s | show in my spreadsheet that i share |
644s | every week what the current profit is |
647s | that people are making of skill |
648s | injectors right and it's it's it's |
650s | complicated et cetera et cetera i'm not |
652s | going to go into that but it's something |
653s | that i think should be out there in the |
655s | community because any time you have |
658s | you know if a a |
659s | small amount of players um |
662s | making a lot of money by a very |
664s | by something that i that that i think is |
667s | is more of an natural play style then i |
669s | want to at least let everyone know that |
671s | this exists because |
672s | this impacts the economy in a very |
675s | in a very significant and large way and |
678s | so that information needs to be out |
680s | there |
682s | and then this is |
683s | less about sharing secrets more about |
686s | again the democratization of data in eve |
689s | this is the tranquility trading tower |
691s | now if you're you know most of you are |
693s | are |
694s | more or less hardcore eve players if |
696s | you're if you've made it all the way to |
697s | iceland now right so you know what the |
698s | trading tower is |
700s | it's that |
701s | that that player run station that is one |
703s | jump from jita in perimeter |
707s | that um houses most of the |
710s | plex and large skill injector um trade |
713s | and used to house most of the buy orders |
715s | because um the the the discrepancy |
718s | between the fees on in npc stations |
721s | versus player owned stations used to be |
724s | very significant it's not like that |
725s | anymore but still they're making a lot |
727s | of money a few years ago |
729s | the tranquility trading tower |
731s | um was making trillions and the parties |
734s | that are sharing that were sharing this |
736s | money they were all at war with each |
738s | other right so this was like an unspoken |
740s | secret everybody knew was kind of |
741s | funding the war but |
743s | everyone was fighting each other |
745s | on |
746s | in the world which you know they they |
747s | really were but then they were funding |
749s | the war by having a common um operation |
752s | so what i wanted to do is again i wanted |
754s | to go in and i wanted to show that this |
756s | is happening and i want to show that |
758s | this is the amount of money that is |
759s | coming out of there i'm not i'm not even |
761s | saying it's a bad thing i'm just saying |
762s | hey good on you you're making a lot of |
763s | money but people should know |
765s | and i put that out there now the the |
767s | real number really says that number is |
769s | more like 1.5 trillion not 2.2 trillion |
771s | but you know |
773s | it's a lot of money so |
774s | um i do stuff like that to |
778s | to to to kind of it's kind of like data |
780s | journalism for for eve online and that |
782s | again |
783s | in turn it builds trust it shows people |
785s | that i am |
786s | more or less on the on the side of the |
788s | people on the side of the community |
790s | and trying to |
792s | make sure that that information is out |
793s | there |
796s | and then you know reputation i said |
798s | nobody's getting rich of eve but |
800s | certainly there's there's you know if |
802s | you are a streamer and if you're um |
804s | halfway successful then you're making |
806s | money here and there and so for me it's |
808s | just not economically feasible to run |
810s | away with this money yeah |
812s | it's not big enough so |
816s | 4 trillion isk is a lot of money right |
819s | and you will you will hear a lot of |
821s | people |
822s | that are talking about rois in the |
824s | uh |
824s | in the in the eve markets and they would |
826s | say yeah i mean i i doubled my my isc |
828s | last week |
830s | this is these are people that are not |
832s | investing trillions all right if you're |
834s | investing trillions in the market your |
836s | options are much more limited because |
840s | you're you you have limiting factors |
842s | such as |
844s | such as risk overall because you have a |
846s | significant portion of the market or or |
848s | time complications so |
850s | it's it's kind of complicated to to |
853s | invest 4 trillion and so and it's |
854s | actually a lot of work so i have devised |
856s | some strategies and some tools to make |
859s | that whole process |
861s | easier and more enjoyable because in the |
863s | end |
864s | it's a game for me as well i i need to |
866s | have some fun right |
867s | so as i said |
870s | you we're talking about very very large |
872s | scale investing here um and so low |
875s | volume high margin items are not what we |
877s | what we can invest in here this is not |
879s | this is not you know where you go and |
881s | you you look at |
883s | you know this this this module that that |
885s | has 10 million isk a day turnover that's |
888s | not going to help you at all right |
890s | you need to value the actual time that |
893s | you're that you're investing in the |
895s | markets just like you have to value the |
897s | time you spend mining now i know the |
900s | people are out there that think my |
901s | minerals the minerals are mine are free |
904s | right they're my natural enemy in the |
905s | eve habitat right |
908s | if you think that um |
912s | you have a problem all right because |
913s | you're you're you're going to |
916s | not make economically rational decisions |
918s | and that's going to not allow me to |
920s | predict what you're making because |
921s | you're not acting rationally so um so |
924s | it's fine of course it's fine but just |
926s | know you're creating problems all right |
928s | on the data side |
931s | speaking of data i'm gonna this is the |
932s | only slide that has math i promise right |
937s | however if you're mathematically |
939s | challenged this whole this whole thing |
940s | is going to be like an apple battle for |
941s | you right so my fund has four trillion |
944s | isk okay |
946s | easy enough |
948s | as i said there's two restrictions |
950s | one is time |
952s | right i want to actually limit |
955s | the amount of time i spend running the |
958s | fund because i have a life right and |
959s | this is not a job at least not yet right |
962s | so i say arbitrarily which is very close |
965s | to the truth i want to only handle 200 |
969s | items in e49 right |
971s | now that's for some of you that's going |
972s | to mean something for others i'll show |
974s | you what that means in a second all |
975s | right so that's one restriction time |
977s | it's limited two |
980s | risk |
981s | right and that has that's multi-faceted |
983s | because |
984s | for one i need to diversify anyone who |
986s | knows that right |
987s | like anyone that's investing anywhere |
989s | knows you need to diversify right even |
991s | if you don't know what that means you've |
993s | heard that before right you need to |
994s | diversify so |
996s | if i put that into math in here |
998s | for example |
1001s | i don't want to have an insane amount of |
1003s | items |
1004s | but i'm limiting the maximum number and |
1007s | i'm i want to limit the amount of trade |
1009s | days that i'm actually holding of a |
1011s | certain item |
1012s | right and what i mean by trade days is |
1015s | i can look at the amount of sell orders |
1018s | available in the forge like the region |
1020s | where jetta is in |
1022s | and i can |
1023s | look at how much i'm holding and i can |
1025s | say |
1026s | if i take the daily volume times five |
1028s | that's the maximum amount i want to hold |
1030s | you know why because |
1033s | stuff happens in eve like patches right |
1035s | people |
1037s | rotary sometimes |
1038s | don't know if you're out here right but |
1039s | sometimes you decide we're going to |
1042s | uh |
1043s | double the amount of ice in the game or |
1045s | we're going to double the amount of |
1049s | moon material right prosperity right |
1053s | for me that's a problem because then |
1054s | immediately i need to liquidate a lot of |
1056s | stuff if i if i'm holding way more than |
1058s | five trade days this is a serious issue |
1060s | because i i can't liquidate that's why |
1062s | i've i've recently lost a lot of money |
1063s | on all of this mumbo stuff that's why |
1065s | i'm still bitter |
1067s | i'm sure you can't tell |
1071s | so simple math again 400 4 trillion is |
1074s | 200 items that's means 20 billion per |
1077s | item roughly on average right |
1079s | if i take the 20 billion and i divide |
1082s | that by the five trade days that i just |
1084s | explained then that means |
1086s | i can really only trade in items |
1089s | that have a daily trade volume of four |
1092s | billion or more |
1093s | right so the the total trade that is |
1096s | happening every day in in the forge |
1099s | should be at least four trillion right |
1101s | now |
1102s | to me that means the world to you you're |
1103s | sitting here like i don't know what that |
1105s | means right so let me show you pictures |
1107s | pictures there are 40 000 items in eve |
1110s | online |
1112s | there are a few more but a lot of them |
1113s | aren't active et cetera et cetera right |
1115s | [Music] |
1116s | 40 thousand |
1118s | if you |
1120s | break that down and say i only want to |
1121s | look at the items that have a trade |
1123s | volume of over 1 billion isk |
1126s | every day in the forge |
1128s | you're already cutting that down to only |
1130s | 1 500 items that's not a lot right |
1133s | if i'm then breaking that down into the |
1135s | items that have five billion or more is |
1138s | traded a day we're only talking about |
1140s | 400 items and you remember how i wanted |
1143s | to trade in 200 items um i'm i'm |
1147s | by by that definition it's about you |
1149s | know half of those items that i'm going |
1150s | to invest in so it's actually quite |
1152s | small the amount of items that i can |
1153s | invest in |
1157s | what's in that little |
1159s | yellow box |
1160s | right if you do market trading you know |
1162s | this right but |
1163s | um i'll give you some examples of what's |
1166s | in there most of that is flex and skill |
1167s | injectors right |
1169s | splax and skill injectors are a huge |
1172s | part of the daily trade volume in eve |
1174s | online right |
1176s | and the problem with investing in those |
1178s | is that |
1178s | the stuff that impacts the plex prices |
1181s | and skill injector prices is mostly |
1183s | stuff that happens outside of the game |
1185s | so |
1186s | this is not this is not |
1188s | this is sometimes a little bit impact |
1190s | about what players do but this is much |
1192s | more impacted by by sales right this is |
1195s | impacted by |
1196s | you know |
1197s | crises that we're seeing in the world |
1199s | right now this is uh you know sometimes |
1202s | ccp decides to raise prices actually |
1204s | they've only decided to do that once but |
1206s | they |
1207s | did that last week or two weeks ago and |
1208s | they made it they made the price for |
1210s | plex and skill injector spike right so |
1211s | this is stuff where you got to be very |
1213s | careful you got to know |
1215s | uh you can't know but you've got to be |
1217s | reacting very quickly when there's |
1219s | public announcements |
1220s | moon materials backbone of tier 2 |
1223s | production obviously very very very high |
1225s | volume |
1226s | ice and fuel blocks certainly basic |
1229s | minerals |
1230s | salvage materials |
1232s | not all of them just like two or three |
1233s | of them are actually of a good volume |
1235s | that you want to trade in however very |
1238s | cyclical and |
1239s | you know it's stuff that people loot and |
1241s | then sell on the market |
1243s | so it's very easy to acquire so it's one |
1245s | of my favorites |
1247s | planetary commodities |
1249s | used to be very relevant in terms of um |
1253s | implant production but now also in you |
1256s | know factorships capitals there's been a |
1258s | lot of |
1259s | fluctuation around the use of planetary |
1261s | commodities |
1263s | ships are interesting because |
1265s | when people start trading a lot of a lot |
1267s | of people are like oh i'm gonna you know |
1268s | buy a bunch of ships and then sell them |
1270s | later for higher cost because |
1272s | it seems like people are under the |
1274s | wrong impression that the price of a |
1276s | ship has something to do with its |
1278s | popularity that's i think the biggest |
1279s | misconception of people trading in eve |
1282s | online because people are saying oh look |
1283s | the produce it got |
1286s | buffed a couple of weeks ago so i'm |
1288s | going to buy a whole bunch of pro pro ti |
1291s | i don't know proteuses |
1293s | and i'm going to get rich but that's not |
1295s | what happens in eve online what happens |
1296s | is like yeah sure it's the price of that |
1298s | proteus is going to maybe spike for a |
1300s | day or two because some people can't |
1302s | wait but then production is going to |
1304s | producers are going to move in they're |
1306s | going to reduce that margin again and |
1308s | the price is going to drop |
1310s | prices for ships are governed by raw |
1312s | materials and as long as raw materials |
1314s | doesn't change or the availability of |
1315s | raw materials doesn't change |
1317s | the equilibrium price of that ship is |
1319s | not going to change so ships are |
1320s | actually not something that i invest in |
1322s | a lot |
1323s | structures yeah but um you know they're |
1326s | they're they're very big so it's kind of |
1328s | clunky so you you trade more more |
1331s | through contracts which makes it very |
1333s | difficult implants |
1336s | faction and dead space modules actually |
1338s | are are a fantastic trade item |
1341s | they again they're looted by an activity |
1343s | that a lot of people do in game they're |
1345s | worth a lot |
1346s | and people |
1348s | love to buy them |
1350s | to use in their ships so that's actually |
1352s | a |
1353s | a very very efficient trade item that |
1356s | you can make a lot of money with |
1357s | insignias and abyssal filaments are |
1359s | among my favorites as well but you know |
1361s | i'm not going to go into into each one |
1363s | of them so if we break that down by |
1365s | trade volume we say okay |
1367s | what what does the overall |
1370s | gita or forge market look like |
1372s | daily we have about 14 trillion isk uh |
1375s | exchanging hands in in the |
1377s | in the in the forge market okay |
1380s | 23 of that is actual plex so if a |
1383s | quarter of all isk that is being moved |
1385s | in the forge is plex transactions so you |
1387s | can't really get around it if you're a |
1390s | large scale investing you really can't |
1392s | get around investing in plex |
1394s | another 16 is skill injectors and then |
1398s | ships are 10 and then you already have |
1400s | skill extractors so you can see that |
1401s | almost half of that pie is |
1405s | real money |
1406s | adjacent |
1408s | products i guess |
1411s | modules seven percent and then there's a |
1412s | whole bunch of other like small stuff |
1415s | the other 30 is so big because you have |
1417s | stuff like blue loot red loot that is |
1419s | not really trade it's just you know |
1421s | people doing stuff in game bringing it |
1423s | to jita and then selling it to npc buy |
1425s | orders that's not really trading right |
1429s | if we look at ship types specifically |
1432s | that's just a you know just a for your |
1434s | information because it's a nice graph |
1436s | if you look at the the ships that are |
1438s | traded in eve online |
1441s | so that's basically all sub caps and |
1443s | freighters above that it's you know |
1445s | again it's too clunky to trade in in in |
1447s | high sec |
1449s | then |
1450s | 40 of that is battleships okay that to |
1453s | me that's always a surprising number |
1454s | this is this is not item uh numbers but |
1458s | this is you know isk value so that you |
1460s | know that that explains it a little bit |
1463s | uh battlecruisers are only six percent |
1465s | cruisers are 20 very very popular um |
1468s | right a lot of that is one ship i'll ask |
1471s | you about that in a second |
1473s | um |
1474s | and then again you have a whole bunch of |
1475s | small stuff and then you know freighters |
1477s | seven percent jump freighters 10 that's |
1479s | kind of significant but that's just |
1480s | because they're |
1481s | very very expensive right now right |
1484s | so let me give you a little pop quiz |
1485s | right now uh on the on the battleships |
1488s | what do you think is the number one |
1492s | most |
1493s | traded battleship by value not so by |
1496s | overall trade volume not by item anyone |
1498s | want to take a guess |
1501s | sorry |
1504s | varga i heard le shark and you said |
1507s | the rattlesnake yeah it's probably good |
1509s | um just by price alone right now it's |
1512s | the marauders winning out because |
1513s | they're just so expensive |
1516s | um so the paladin the varga and the |
1517s | golem are actually one two and three by |
1519s | trade volume |
1521s | um for battle cruises it's the dracovac |
1524s | the the drake navy issue in the noses on |
1526s | the cruiser um |
1530s | yeah i actually won a beer yesterday in |
1532s | the security panel because i said what's |
1533s | the the they asked the same question |
1535s | about what's the most uh popular cruiser |
1538s | among boughters and that was also the |
1540s | gila right |
1544s | and the ishtar and the tengu right those |
1546s | are the the most popular ships |
1548s | so |
1550s | that's the backdrop |
1553s | against which i am investing so those |
1555s | are the items that are that are relevant |
1557s | at all i i call these relevant trade |
1559s | items because i have to kind of take |
1561s | these 40 000 items and put them into a |
1564s | manageable |
1566s | sandbox to to play with |
1568s | i've created a custom trading tool |
1570s | um to help me cut the time down that i |
1574s | actually spent doing all of this because |
1576s | i could i could be trading all day but i |
1578s | just i just can't right so what i've |
1580s | created is what i call the dashboard to |
1582s | rule them all right this is the |
1585s | this is the the bloomberg terminal |
1587s | version of eve online trading right |
1589s | um |
1590s | i have done all of this without the |
1592s | excel integration that was presented |
1594s | yesterday um i actually don't need don't |
1596s | need that i have a lot of |
1600s | friends and i have a lot of knowledge |
1602s | about taking all the data from the api |
1605s | and putting it into spreadsheets |
1607s | so what you see here is |
1610s | the dashboard that tells me every day |
1612s | which item category that i just talked |
1614s | about is moving in which direction which |
1617s | item category is trading at which |
1619s | percentage of |
1621s | the 52-week trading volume so compared |
1623s | to yearly trading volume and also price |
1627s | and also it looks at that availability |
1629s | it says okay which items or item |
1632s | categories are currently scarce on the |
1634s | market and which ones are abundant and |
1638s | that means that i can see |
1640s | you know shortages coming i can see |
1643s | which items are currently flooding the |
1645s | market and might be cheap to pick up |
1647s | and then last but not least also i also |
1649s | look at the the daily trade volume in |
1651s | each of the categories right up until |
1653s | here it's all just dashboard information |
1656s | which is very i mean this information is |
1658s | very important because it allows you to |
1660s | make quick decisions but this in itself |
1662s | is not a trading tool yet what makes it |
1664s | an amazing trading tool |
1667s | is the querying that i can do with it so |
1669s | what i do is |
1672s | i have a a little query and this is the |
1674s | reason this is not |
1675s | it doesn't have a good ui is because i'm |
1677s | the only one using it right this is not |
1678s | something that i'm giving to people so |
1680s | if you're wondering his scratches are |
1681s | really ugly i i use them just myself |
1685s | and |
1686s | what that says in the top left corner |
1687s | there is |
1689s | i'm looking for items that are trading |
1691s | at 90 |
1693s | 52 week average so these are items that |
1695s | are trading at least |
1696s | 10 below what the item was trading all |
1700s | year |
1701s | i want items that are trading above 100 |
1704s | volume so it's items that are hot that |
1706s | are trading right now at a higher volume |
1708s | than usual i want items that |
1711s | have less than five trade days available |
1714s | in the market so kind of scarce items |
1716s | and |
1717s | i could reduce it by by category but in |
1720s | this case i didn't and then i want items |
1722s | that have a trend above zero and that |
1724s | just means i want items that are trading |
1726s | higher today |
1727s | than they were trading yesterday |
1729s | now this all seems very theoretical but |
1732s | what this does is it cuts |
1734s | two or three hours of work or maybe |
1737s | impossible work down to about three |
1739s | seconds that i can do every day and i |
1741s | have about five of these queries where |
1743s | then i get an output like this and this |
1745s | table right there |
1746s | when just went through all of the |
1748s | relevant trade items in eve |
1750s | and |
1751s | gives a nice neat little list that tells |
1754s | me okay what's the item how much does it |
1757s | trade actually on trading volume every |
1759s | day |
1760s | how is it in relation to the uh the |
1763s | average price volume and availability it |
1765s | color codes it nicely |
1766s | i can copy this and a lot of people |
1768s | don't know this but you can actually |
1770s | just paste it into the market browser in |
1772s | your in your station in in jita |
1775s | or whatever it is you're doing trading |
1778s | but if you're not doing in geeta you're |
1779s | really doing it wrong um |
1781s | so you paste that |
1783s | in the browser |
1784s | or in your in your market window you can |
1786s | go through some of those items are not |
1788s | going to be great because this tool only |
1790s | does technical analysis some of these |
1791s | items are going to not make sense to |
1794s | trade and because for example here we |
1796s | have you know minerals and the tool just |
1798s | says hey minerals are really cheap right |
1800s | now at least some of them are right |
1802s | and |
1804s | we know or at least you know if you're |
1805s | doing micro trading you know well yeah |
1807s | but you know we just had prosperity so |
1810s | you know a lot of the items were |
1811s | reintroduced back into the game from a |
1813s | scarcity phase so we actually have um |
1816s | reasons why these are trading very |
1817s | cheaply |
1819s | but |
1820s | this again |
1821s | this is an this is this allows me to |
1823s | quickly look at these items |
1825s | [Music] |
1826s | there's very rarely |
1828s | uh does it happen that i don't have the |
1830s | biggest money makers of the day in this |
1832s | in this type of list right maybe not |
1835s | with these exact parameters but i play |
1836s | with them every day right |
1839s | eve wouldn't be eve and i couldn't do |
1841s | what i do in eve if there weren't just |
1844s | amazing third-party developers in this |
1846s | community right so i want to do some |
1847s | shout outs and i want to maybe inspire |
1849s | you if you're looking to either get into |
1851s | trading or you have a specific niche |
1853s | case that you want to use a tool for i |
1856s | want to mention some |
1858s | some some of a plethora of amazing tools |
1861s | right adam for eve dot eu is the closest |
1865s | thing to my trading tool that you're |
1866s | going to find in terms of a web tool so |
1869s | um if you don't know it absolutely |
1871s | amazing that he he's got a margin finder |
1873s | on there he's got a material influence |
1876s | tool where you can look at which items |
1878s | go into |
1878s | uh which uh |
1881s | finished goods uh and um how big the |
1884s | trade value of these finished goods is |
1886s | uh he has a dashboard just like just |
1888s | like mine kind of like mine which you |
1890s | can tweak a little bit to your to your |
1891s | liking so adam for eve best overall tool |
1894s | chief assets is a java based application |
1896s | that i'm sure a lot of you use for |
1898s | character management |
1900s | you can look at your assets transactions |
1902s | the nice thing about that is you can't |
1904s | you know you can use it to find assets |
1906s | that you thought were lost like you'd be |
1907s | amazed how many assets you might have |
1909s | across space that you didn't know about |
1911s | but you can also copy that out to |
1913s | spreadsheets if you want to do |
1914s | additional work with it fuzzwork a lot |
1916s | of you guys know that probably because |
1918s | of the lp |
1919s | tool that that he's got on the website |
1921s | but also he's got an api for market data |
1923s | so that's how i can |
1925s | draw a lot of the market data into my my |
1927s | spreadsheets |
1930s | mocam.dk is a tool that actually came |
1933s | out of our community because |
1936s | for the longest time |
1937s | from the eve api you can only get |
1939s | current market data you can't get |
1941s | historical data so if you want to do |
1942s | what i do with the comparison against |
1944s | yearly averages and monthly averages and |
1946s | that sort of stuff then you need |
1949s | historic market data and so |
1952s | mocam is a person from our community who |
1954s | created a tool that lets you draw a |
1958s | whole bunch of kpis |
1960s | that he calculates based on the data |
1962s | that is available from |
1964s | from from ccp and i i couldn't do my |
1966s | spreadsheets without that |
1969s | and then eve cookbook.com |
1972s | fantastic site if you want to know |
1974s | what the blueprints take for each item |
1978s | so you can go in and |
1980s | look at currently right now look at not |
1982s | only what it's going to be now but also |
1985s | what is going to be on cc with the |
1986s | changes that are that are coming to to |
1989s | blueprints here very soon around the |
1990s | corner |
1991s | and the great thing about that is you |
1993s | can actually he's got an api where you |
1995s | can pull that data into your spreadsheet |
1997s | as well so what i what i do on my query |
1999s | one of the kpis that i can query on as |
2001s | well is compared to the build cost so i |
2003s | can do everything that i just showed you |
2005s | and then and then say and now show me |
2007s | the items that are like that but are |
2009s | trading below build cost and that's |
2011s | that's a real game changer because you |
2013s | know if you look at for example um you |
2016s | know capitals or or freighters in |
2019s | in the last few weeks were um or in the |
2021s | last few months where they were all |
2023s | trading below build costs and they were |
2025s | really a a good investment you know if |
2027s | they hadn't been changed back now but |
2029s | you know they were a very good |
2030s | investment |
2031s | and that's not possible without things |
2033s | like like eve cookbook |
2037s | so the last thing i want to tell you is |
2039s | some notable traits because i know you |
2040s | know this was a lot of |
2042s | spreadsheets |
2044s | data abstract concepts so what is that |
2046s | what does that mean in game what what do |
2047s | i actually do what are some notable |
2049s | traits um |
2052s | the plaques for good campaign was |
2053s | actually a a time |
2056s | where a lot of people |
2058s | that may have had historic characters |
2060s | uh used as an opportunity to liquidate a |
2063s | lot of skill points and get out of the |
2064s | game that way right in |
2066s | a way that you know a lot of a lot of |
2069s | very very old players that are that have |
2071s | not played the game in a long time what |
2073s | um what they want to do is they wait for |
2075s | plex for good campaign so they can |
2077s | donate the uh do something good with |
2079s | their plaques right |
2081s | in this case |
2082s | there were players that were donating a |
2085s | hundred thousand plex and more right i |
2087s | know at least one person that that did |
2089s | that was which is which is insane that's |
2091s | a large chunk of the the 500 000 uh that |
2094s | we that we saw yesterday um or that |
2096s | we've that we saw on the end of the plex |
2098s | for good campaign the problem those |
2100s | people have is they need to find |
2102s | find players to buy all these skill |
2103s | injectors from them right because who's |
2105s | got 500 billion lying around |
2107s | i do |
2108s | um |
2109s | and so it doesn't take long for those |
2112s | players to find me |
2113s | and |
2114s | i bought over 500 billion in skill |
2117s | injectors um |
2119s | during that time a few months ago |
2121s | not knowing that ccp would raise prices |
2124s | and thereby um |
2126s | making not only the plex price but also |
2128s | the large scale injector prices explode |
2130s | so that was probably the single most |
2132s | profitable trade that i've um that i've |
2135s | done in the last two years since running |
2137s | the fund so that um i bought them all at |
2139s | 590 and they're over 700 now so that's |
2142s | that was good but it's not all roses um |
2145s | it's it's also i i've also lost 150 |
2148s | billion on on some of the um moon |
2151s | material crash because i was just too |
2153s | heavily in uh into moon materials and |
2156s | when ccp announced the |
2159s | the implementation of |
2162s | of compression for for moongu and then |
2164s | also within the same month |
2166s | basically |
2167s | increasing the amount of available moon |
2170s | or |
2171s | in the universe that just crashed prices |
2173s | uh they were |
2175s | the crash prices crashed too quickly for |
2177s | me to react and so i lost a lot of money |
2179s | in that |
2180s | and then this is more of a public |
2182s | service announcement because i'm always |
2183s | surprised that not everyone does this um |
2186s | so right now is capsuleer day right and |
2188s | everyone gets practice gnosis and |
2190s | sinesis right and |
2192s | if you're talking about anyone in |
2194s | trading it's very clear that when |
2196s | everyone gets something the prices just |
2198s | crash right so |
2201s | just by buying up all the practices |
2203s | gnosis and synesis in this week |
2206s | i made 20 billion last year right um |
2210s | apparently this is this is still not out |
2212s | there like i fully expect to not be able |
2214s | to do that anymore because i keep |
2215s | telling people you guys need to do that |
2218s | so this year i'm hoping that |
2220s | i'm hoping just as an experiment that |
2222s | the price drop isn't actually going to |
2223s | be that big because people anticipated |
2225s | and i've educated enough people so let's |
2227s | see if that experiment turns out but so |
2229s | far i've made out |
2231s | like like a bandit on those uh society |
2233s | of conscious thought ships |
2235s | which are amazing by the way |
2237s | all right |
2239s | i'll leave you with some lessons learned |
2240s | and then we'll do some q a if you guys |
2242s | want |
2243s | one |
2244s | this is a sandbox |
2246s | right you can |
2247s | no matter what your skills are you know |
2249s | you can find your niche and why wouldn't |
2252s | you if you want to why wouldn't you try |
2254s | to be the best at something right you |
2255s | don't have to go out and and shoot stuff |
2257s | if you if you don't want to you don't |
2259s | have to be in a large alliance or |
2261s | corporation i am neither of that i can't |
2263s | i can't i don't undock i can't do |
2265s | anything in eve i really this is all i |
2267s | do right but i can be the best at |
2268s | something or at least in some niche or |
2270s | at least be among the best right |
2274s | because the best ones aren't the ones up |
2275s | here talking about it then they're just |
2277s | quiet about it |
2279s | you can build trust and eve so this is |
2281s | this is big right because everyone's |
2283s | going to tell you it's not possible it |
2285s | is it's it's just a lot of work right |
2287s | and and not a lot of people um actually |
2289s | get to experience it but i'm i'm very |
2291s | privileged and privileged in in that |
2293s | respect and it's it's a lot of |
2295s | it's it's a lot of fun and i get a lot |
2297s | of enjoyment |
2298s | out of doing what i'm doing so i'm very |
2299s | happy that i get to do that |
2302s | and then thirdly |
2305s | i fully thought when i started this |
2308s | right that i would be ridiculed that |
2311s | you know the community would just say |
2313s | what like what |
2314s | how how dare how dare you and you know |
2317s | you can't you can't take people's |
2319s | like |
2320s | and and i got a little bit of that you |
2322s | know i got like five or six people but i |
2324s | got like a thousand people saying oh how |
2326s | cool you're doing something that other |
2328s | people aren't you know ccp was super |
2330s | supportive my stream is very successful |
2333s | so |
2334s | you know |
2335s | sometimes the community gets a bad rap |
2337s | on being you know very |
2339s | very you know very cutthroat or very you |
2342s | know mistrusting that's not the |
2344s | experience that i've had at all i've had |
2346s | a fantastic experience it's been a ton |
2348s | of fun and i'm just very thankful for |
2351s | you all for for this community um this |
2353s | is my first fan past and it it's just um |
2357s | it has solidified everything that my eve |
2360s | experience has been in the last few |
2362s | years being very active in this |
2363s | community so um thank you all for for |
2366s | that |
2368s | and so |
2369s | that's that's really is er it's it for |
2372s | for my presentation today um |
2374s | we'll we'll take a few questions i i |
2376s | honestly the number one question that |
2378s | i've already gotten um that i'm going to |
2381s | preempt before somebody asks is |
2384s | when are you going to run away with the |
2385s | money right because |
2388s | i'm sitting on all that money and i |
2389s | think i've already explained uh uh i |
2392s | i've explained why i'm not going to run |
2394s | away with the money um however |
2399s | if i would ever run away with the money |
2400s | this this moment right here would |
2402s | probably be the best because there's a |
2404s | lot of press here ccp is here there's a |
2406s | lot of you watching right and would be |
2409s | the most |
2410s | fun time for me to right now say |
2413s | i'm going to take all of your money and |
2414s | i don't know you know if i can't i can't |
2416s | really it would have to be a plex for |
2418s | good thing right um but today is not |
2421s | that day right but if if i get invited |
2423s | back next year to to do the 20 year |
2425s | anniversary maybe that's a good time to |
2427s | just liquidate everything and give it |
2428s | away all right so |
2430s | thank you guys um if you have questions |
2432s | let me know if not there's a round table |
2434s | at uh at 4 pm today yeah |
2437s | thank |
2439s | [Applause] |
2445s | yes so will i double his isk is the |
2448s | question so |
2449s | absolutely |
2451s | my return on investment is not nearly a |
2454s | hundred percent right and people don't |
2456s | expect that just because it's it's it's |
2458s | that big and i'm very transparent about |
2460s | what i do so isk doubling is not |
2462s | actually uh what i do but of course that |
2465s | is also a very popular question and |
2467s | typically my answer is uh yes of course |
2468s | just give me your money i'll double it |
2471s | um i'll share that in a second i see |
2473s | dunk at the uh at the at the mic there |
2476s | well first i just want to thank you for |
2478s | doing the show it's a great thing to |
2479s | watch while i'm doing my space work so i |
2481s | appreciate it thank you so my question |
2483s | uh i do a lot of industry work not as |
2485s | much trading so my spreadsheets all |
2487s | monitor the costs of things across the |
2490s | different hubs and in null sect that |
2491s | kind of thing and what i see from time |
2493s | to time |
2494s | are expensive ships t2 ships like hacks |
2498s | uh different expensive ships to make |
2500s | trading below the maximally optimal |
2504s | build cost and in significant numbers |
2507s | and multiple orders for that where it is |
2509s | now that is the default market price so |
2512s | i'd like to get your take on what you |
2514s | think is going on because |
2516s | suddenly |
2517s | i don't know how they make any i don't |
2518s | know what's going on there |
2520s | so my theory on that is |
2522s | um for one it's those people that don't |
2525s | value their own time and and resources |
2527s | so if |
2528s | um |
2529s | [Music] |
2530s | if theoretically let's say theoretically |
2532s | those were bought accounts mining right |
2535s | bot accounts if they if they no i'm not |
2537s | saying this is going on right |
2539s | um but if if the in an extreme case it's |
2542s | a bot account mining so they don't value |
2544s | the time they don't have to value the |
2545s | time because it doesn't exist right |
2548s | they have a very different price point |
2550s | right also you would be surprised at the |
2553s | amount of people i talk to that do |
2554s | industry just |
2556s | because they like doing industry so a |
2558s | lot of times what happens is |
2561s | people will |
2562s | will |
2563s | will not correctly track the cost of the |
2565s | raw material and also if you just look |
2568s | at it from a data perspective it might |
2570s | not be profitable but |
2572s | maybe their price point is completely |
2574s | different and you're saying i mean i |
2576s | know you do it on an industry scale |
2577s | right on an alliance scale i i know that |
2580s | but your price point might be even in |
2582s | your alliance might be way different |
2585s | from another alliance so i think in the |
2587s | end we're never going to know i think |
2589s | it's a mixture of price point and people |
2591s | not valuing their time i think there's i |
2593s | mean there are a ton of bad decisions |
2597s | being made economically speaking and eve |
2599s | online it's it's staggering like i i |
2601s | think the people making good economic |
2603s | decisions are definitely in the minority |
2607s | and i don't know if that's reflective of |
2608s | the real economy out there but uh it's |
2611s | you know i've i've given up trying to |
2613s | trying to assume that everyone makes |
2615s | good economic decisions |
2619s | on the topic of bots have you considered |
2622s | implementing a high frequency trading |
2624s | bot |
2626s | to automate your own work |
2629s | um |
2631s | so what the stuff i do is all |
2634s | already geared towards minimizing the |
2636s | amount of time that i spend and so the |
2639s | the time where i could optimize i guess |
2641s | is to |
2642s | to take that list and generate the input |
2645s | for a market order um |
2647s | automatically |
2649s | but |
2650s | my strategy and this is where i i'm very |
2653s | different from i think other station |
2654s | traders that i know and talk to is |
2657s | i don't i don't do you know i don't have |
2659s | 30 000 outstanding orders on 100 |
2662s | accounts like that's not the stuff i i |
2664s | do that's what um people like eve trade |
2667s | does for example right |
2669s | i i have one or two accounts i have a |
2672s | few hundred orders i don't that's not |
2673s | what i do i i do strategic long-term |
2676s | investing and so |
2678s | for me actually i'm very close to the |
2680s | optimal way of trading my strategy of |
2684s | buy and hold right |
2686s | i can't optimize that in terms of |
2689s | um you know |
2690s | saying |
2692s | this is a spreadsheet that tells me |
2693s | exactly buy a hundred of this item today |
2696s | that wouldn't that wouldn't fit me with |
2698s | my strategy but that would be a smart |
2700s | thing to do for other people i don't |
2701s | know how you would have to be careful |
2703s | with the euler though right |
2705s | somebody asked about the roi um i'm i'm |
2708s | i'm much more |
2709s | so i used to be in the range of i have a |
2712s | smaller fund with uh more more high |
2714s | value items where i would reach around |
2716s | 20 |
2718s | roi |
2720s | on a yearly basis not a monthly basis |
2722s | right and um and in in |
2725s | on on my large fund it's more you know |
2727s | like three four percent but these are |
2729s | people investing like 100 billion isk so |
2731s | i mean they're not doing anything with |
2733s | it |
2734s | and if if i'm just writing the market a |
2735s | little bit |
2736s | then they're happy |
2739s | is there a |
2740s | in-game item you wouldn't like to sell |
2743s | because you |
2744s | do like it a lot |
2747s | um that i wouldn't sell because i like |
2749s | it a lot |
2750s | yeah because you have it in your hunger |
2753s | your first chip or something like that |
2755s | ah all right i i do i do i'm um |
2759s | you know and again |
2761s | i'm gonna have to call out retardy again |
2762s | i don't know if you're here but the |
2764s | signal 25 needle jack filaments i have a |
2766s | real problem with them and |
2768s | those those trigger me every every |
2770s | single time because |
2772s | they were released to be like a very |
2774s | high value item back in the day right um |
2778s | and i bought almost the entire market of |
2780s | them i bought them at around |
2783s | 5 10 20 million a piece now i don't know |
2786s | if you know what they're trading at |
2788s | today but ccp very soon after the |
2791s | announcement that they're going to be |
2792s | very important and very great release |
2795s | them as a login item for everyone to |
2796s | have which is fantastic if you're |
2798s | holding half the universe of them right |
2800s | so i have a |
2802s | i have a humongous pile of worthless |
2805s | signal 25 needle jacks in there and now |
2808s | they've at least taken them off |
2810s | the login rewards again so actually |
2813s | their value has you know quadrupled |
2816s | probably since that happened but i will |
2819s | never ever get back to the 10 20 million |
2821s | so that's the item that i'm just on |
2822s | principle i'm never selling again |
2824s | because i'm just i'm just keeping it |
2825s | yeah |
2827s | all right |
2828s | 4 p.m uh is the round table if you want |
2831s | to talk uh uh no doubt about |
2832s | spreadsheets and everything i thank you |
2834s | all um so much only for for being here |
2837s | for for you know listening to my |
2839s | presentation um and please approach me |
2842s | if you have any questions would love to |
2843s | meet as many of you as possible right |
2844s | thank you guys so much |