devtrackers.gg
Across 751 responses there are 1 responses that had a rare drop.
1 legitimate drop - https://twitter.com/pantagruelia/status/1108744333166026752?s=21
5 People CLAIMED to have one, but could not provide proof, so they were removed from the statistics.
A total of 9308 runs have been completed, with again, 0 1 CONFIRMED RARE DROPS.
If we take the 23 confirmed drops(or dev room glitches) I got pictures for from the main thread and add them to the results, that leaves us with a 0.03% Drop Rate.
This is UNACCEPTABLE if this is expected to be obtained by the average player, or even an ultra-hardcore player. There is definitly a big difference between 'Rare' and 'Ultra-Rare', This leaning more towards Ultra-Rare than Rare.
I am leaving the poll open to continue to collect more responses, you can fill it out here
Lets do some more math, lets say you can average 3 runs per hour(20 minute runs), lets assume your also a robot who can operate 24/7. The event goes for 1 week, so 1 robo-person could realistically get 504 runs in the week this event runs.
Using this equation 1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y ) x = Drop chance and Y = Number of runs
Equation from this article Someone tell me why its wrong and what equation i should be using.
1 - ( ( 1 - .0003) ^ 504 ) = 0.14.
So even if you are a robot operating at peak efficiency you only have a 14% chance of getting a single 'rare' mask.
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