[2022] How people are still sleeping on drakes? 87.7% wr on weakest soul

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Dragon souls are as strong as ever (lowest winrate with drake is 87.7% https://www.leagueofgraphs.com/rankings/drakes) but people still threat them as "optional objective? Meanwhile, once every other week there are new youtube video with "new korean broken build, literal peak performing esport athlete is smashing ladder with this build". And suddenly, my ranked games are filled with 30%wr-gray kda-muramana-aery Xayah.

People are so focused on champion winrates when most of their loses are from wrong macro decisions. It is going on for years and is depressing. How do you make people focus drakes without getting chat restrict or writing a 5 page essay "why coming to help secure drake is more important than whatever you're doing right now, since whatever you're doing right now is not even close to 87.7% winrate efficiency".

But absolute worst (it happens SO MUCH) is when your toplaner is going toplane 40 seconds before drake, telling you that it is fine, he have teleport, while enemy toplaner with ignite is grouped, pressing every avaliable button to win fight before your toplaner can even react and since there is no need to use tp (fight is lost and enemy took drake), he will stick to pushing lane and as he makes it to enemy tower, their toplaner is there to defend it.

Or am I just out of touch?

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almost 3 years ago - /u/PhreakRiot - Direct link

The difficulty with these measures is that they’re heavily correlated with the winning team grabbing them in that the team that’s already winning grabs the dragons.

That said, dragon souls are good.

almost 3 years ago - /u/PhreakRiot - Direct link

Originally posted by LPSlash

Phreak shutting down nonsensical confirmation bias analysis real quick.

That’s not what confirmation bias is.

almost 3 years ago - /u/PhreakRiot - Direct link

Originally posted by LPSlash

Yes it is. Example: you just won the game after getting soul. You are already a player that believes soul is game winning. You think to yourself wow we won that game because we got soul.

Confirmation bias definition: the tendency to process information by looking for information that is consistent with ones existing beliefs. So in my example the player already believes soul is game winning. So when they win after getting soul they are engaging in confirmation bias if they then say to someone “I won because of soul”.

My bad for assuming you were intelligent, Phreak.

Confirmation bias is the implicit subconscious bias of giving more weight to evidence that supports your claim and diminishing evidence that goes against it.

Using dragon soul winrate as a measure of power is a problem of mistaking correlation for causation, not of confirmation bias. Dragon soul is correlated with winning because winning teams easily claim dragons, not because those dragons caused the team to win.

I guess one could make the case the confirmation bias is influencing the tendency to view the correlation in a certain way but that’s not the primary thing going on here.

almost 3 years ago - /u/PhreakRiot - Direct link

Originally posted by TheScyphozoa

Something I don’t understand. When the winning team has 2 dragons, it’s usually the same 2 dragons, but when the winning team has 3 dragons, it’s usually 3 different dragons. The former makes sense, because if you lose 1 and 2 then take 3 and 4, you’re making a comeback. But why do teams taking 1, 2, and 3 win more than teams taking 3, 4, and 5? Does the 3rd dragon represent a time in the game where comebacks become much less likely?

You said winning for both first sentence so you’ll need to edit that before I can give you a straight answer.

almost 3 years ago - /u/PhreakRiot - Direct link

Originally posted by TheScyphozoa

I said what I meant. When a team WINS THE GAME after taking 2 dragons, it's usually 2 of the same dragon, which means they did not take any early dragons. When a team WINS THE GAME after taking 3 dragons, it's usually 3 different dragons, which means they DID take early dragons.

I assume it’s just measuring fairly different things. Measuring exact count is always odd. How does a team get exactly two dragons? They get early ones then get stomped or they ignore and then get them late. How does a team get exactly 3 and not 4? You get them early and get stomped or ignore the first one(s).

In either case, taking dragons (2), 3, and 4 line up with being the stronger team. After all, early game leads are nice, but if they disappear you’re no longer winning and thus get no more dragons. If you’re behind early but get ahead late, then you win and get later dragons.

Edit:

I imagine getting the first two dragons has a high win rate. But usually if you get the first two dragons and keep winning you go beyond 2 and get 4. It’s hard to be the winning team and stop at 1-2 or 1-2-3 because you expect to get more.

almost 3 years ago - /u/PhreakRiot - Direct link

Originally posted by IronHardstuck

Oh, never expected to see Preak of all people. If you have that kind of data, obviously, your word is final, honestly if I could dive deep into kind of statistics you have I would be happy but I don't have that kind of access.

I think I used wrong words and what I meant by my post is lost. I will be collecting data and try to formulate a much more "cleaner" version.

It's more that it's pretty much impossible to disentangle soul vs. already-winning without doing more work.

You can get somewhat close. For example, oracleselixir.com has a winrate calculator that just crunches through pro data and tries to solve for gold leads vs. dragon leads vs. souls, etc.

You can't measure just dragon soul by itself, but you can look at what % of games are won with Dragon Soul and compare that with gold leads and get there by crunching through more variables.

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