[2021] Without the 600 points mission, you would have needed 90 games to complete de event. Assuming you get max points every single game

TL;DR : Title. Also in second part of this post I'll also try to get some aprox some real numbers for this, since max points every single game is impossible. Short answer is: 164-258 for Ultimate Spellbook and 188-321 for ARAM.

Disclaimers:

1. 6 out of 10 sentinels change their mission based on completion order of the regions. 5 out of them also change the amount of points they give. So if you run the numbers for yourself, it's very likely you are gonna get slightly different results. I will mostly discuss my situation here and post the data in the order that I've completed.
2. I didn't include points you get from the skinline since not everyone has them.
3. I didn't include Rookie missions. They start in week 3 , require special order of completion in order to get them (so you will miss half to two thirds of them). They also seem hard to complete and don't give that much points, Riot also describes them as " these are optional tasks meant to give you a little point boost in certain situations ".
4. All data I use comes from Riot's official post.
5. This post also assumes that you are going to complete each region in the week it came and not wait until last week to start the event.
6. In the second part I will try to get a realist number of games needed to complete the event. I will try to refer at missions as much as possible but keep in mind this will be based on assumptions so by no means this is gonna be exact.

So first let's look at the data(this is in the order that I've completed so far):

Demacia : 210 , Max points you can earn: 24, Games needed: 9

Freljord : 280 , Max points you can earn: 32, Games needed: 9

Noxus : 280 , Max points you can earn: 47, Games needed: 6

Ionia : 1050 , Max points you can earn: 102, Games needed: 11

Targon : 1050 , Max points you can earn: 122, Games needed: 9

Piltover : 2500 , Max points you can earn: 229, Games needed: 11

Ixtal : 2615 , Max points you can earn: 247, Games needed: 11

Bilgewater : 2615 , Max points you can earn: 272, Games needed: 10

Shurima : 3000 , Max points you can earn: 456, Games needed: 7

Shadow Isle: 3200 , Max points you can earn: 481, Games needed: 7

Total games needed: 90

And that's all until here. But this assumes you will get maximum points every single game so let's take a more realistic approach and see what number of games we actually needed to expect. First let's dive into problems with the points system:

1. Progress to mission it's not linear, thus it's way harder to complete them than it seems. This is a big problem with the current system that I saw no one talk about. But enough big words and let's look into a example:

Ex: Lucian, week 1, Get kills : 1/5/10/15 , Points gained: 1/3/6/8
In this scenario you need 15 kills to get maximum points. If you get 14, you fall into the next threshold and the 4 kills you had extra won't carry to the next game. Also if you get more than 15 kills you wont get extra points. Compare this with previous events, where instead of 12 small mission you had 1 big one that required progress from multiple games. There everything you did counted as progress towards the end goal. In this event everything gets round up in a way that comes against the player. This is further exacerbated by the fact that certain missions have completed unequal thresholds for points. The main example for this is Olaf (A) mission which gives 1/3/5/15 points in week 1. This means that one turret behold the threshold is gonna net you just 1/3 of the points. A pretty big loss.

1. The top limit for missions is sky high which makes it hard to achieve even in games where you stomp enemy team. 15 kills are a lot. 32 vision score is a lot if you don't play support. 7 epic monsters are a lot. Win a game with 0 deaths is almost impossible. And the list can go on. This high limit also means that in games where you lose, you are gonna get a mediocre ammount of points. These limits are impossible to be reached consistently and all at once.

2. After a certain point there are just too many things to focus on. In the previous events you had to do a limited amount of tasks at once, be it deal damage or get turrets or get vision score. But in this event you have 12 different things you have to do at once, which limits the number of things you can focus on. You also have to remember the thresholds of each mission in order to maximize the output. At this point you really can't keep it up and you're gonna lose points because you focus on things that you already maxed out.

3. Certain missions are too unreliable to complete or have a direct conflict with other missions. Let me get this question to you: How many times have you stolen 4 epic monsters in a single game? Or how many times did you got a penta? There are missions here that might be impossible to complete once even if you had an entire season at your disposal, let alone be able to consistently complete them. Then there is the other type of missions that conflicts directly with the other missions thus you chose to ignore. This type will require you to win in under 15 minutes, when you need kills, assists, vision score etc. for other missions. Or will require you to deal 40k magic damage, when you already have a 40k physical damage mission.

4. You must play a Ultimate Spellbook in order to get most points. Regular SR is just too slow to have a consistent points gain. ARAM map just doesn't have a lot of features which you need in order to gain points.

Ok, now we know what the main culprits against getting maximum points are let's how realistic this is by going mission by mission(this only contains the scenario that I got with my order, as it's already getting complicated):

Get kills: I believe it's reasonable to expect to get 30-50% points of this mission on average for Ultimate Spellbook(US for now). Mainly because getting stomped happens on a regular basis and the last threshold of 15 points is hard to get. On ARAM kills happen more often so you get around 60-70%.

Get assists: Similar to the previous one in reasoning, but assists are slightly easier to come by than kills. So expect around 40-60% for US and 70-80% for ARAM.

Vision score: On US this is ez. Just spam your trinkets and always keep a control ward close to your base. Expect 50-75% of points just because sometimes game end before you reach max. On Aram expect nothing here.

Epic Monsters: Dragons and herald aparently count as epic monsters. The threshold is too big and requires your team to win. And even if you win the enemy might sneak one or two objectives. Expect around 30% of points for US and 0 for Aram.

Destroy structures: This weights a lot as it gives almost double the points as previous missions. However the difference between 3rd and 4th threshold is massive, so anything below 10 structures drags the average down a lot. I would say you can get around 30-40% for US and around 10% for ARAM.

Get takedowns: Easy to complete but gives almost no points thus means little in the bigger scheme. Expect 80-90% for US and around 90% for ARAM.

Win within a certain number of minutes: This conflicts with the rest of the missions. It's last threshold is 15 which is not easy to get on any mode. Overall you will end between 2nd and 3rd threshold but the problem is this mission has a huge gap in points here. Expect 20-30% here for US and a solid 30% for ARAM.

Deal Magic Damage to Champs: This can be pulled consistent if you are willingly to only play ap and don't get also the mission with physical dmg. Since i didn't got that one I will give it 90% for US and around 70% for ARAM because you might not have a choice here.

Steal Epic Monsters: Completely unreliable for US. Impossible to complete on Aram. I give it 0% on both.

Get Solo Kills: Very big threshold. It also comes into conflict with first two missions as you want to group with your team in order to get more kills or assists, rather than solo bolos. Most of the time you would at least get one solo kill but not 5 which is the next threshold. I would say 20-25% for US and 10% on ARAM.

Get Multikills : This is mission basically requires a penta to complete. It also requires a single kill to only get first threshold which is 30% of the points. The next one requires a triple. I believe 30-40% for US and 35-45% for ARAm are good estimates here.

Win a game: Stats say you get 50% points here.

As you can see the amount of points varies from region to region and game mode to game mode based on the sentinels you got.

While on Demacia you can expect 40-61% for US and 43-50% for ARAM, for the last level you can expect something like 42% for US and 34% for ARAM. However since the percentage starts to drop pretty fast after Demacia , especially for ARAM , we can use a 45% number for US and 38% for ARAM. In case you are wondering I did a weighted average here since missions give a different number of points. Since this math relies heavily on assumption I would give myself a margin of error of 10%.

This means that for Ultimate spellbook you can expect on average to gain 35-55% points from the max points available for you putting the estimated number of games need between 164-258.

For ARAM you can expect and average of 28-48% of the total possible points meaning you need an estimated number of 188-321.

I wanted to do one for ranked SR as well but there things get even more complicated. In case you still care about my opinion I think the number of games it's pretty close to ARAM but with games taking longer to complete.

My conclusion after this whole amazing mathematical adventure that took me 3 hours to complete? Yeah, Riot fcked up! Good thing they figured it out midway and corrected everything by adding the 600 points mission.

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