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External link →This post is... odd. I'm seeing very clear alternate options for all example champions, with some even higher WR than the most commonly picked item. The problem is that no one is changing what they buy.
I see this is more of an issue with how Riot "weights" what defines our recommendations in the shop than anything else (we currently heavily value what's bought more often than what's the most effective WR increase).
One thing that's important to note about these stats outlined in this post is that pick rate =/= viability. Mythic diversity manifests mostly in what items are viable on a champion, and the items are different enough that certain gamestates call for certain items.
Using your own examples, Sylas (in the last 30 days) purchases everfrost in 88% of games. However, there are 3 other mythics with higher win % than it, one of which is Ludens with a 3% higher winrate. If players were more adaptable, they'd identify the situations where other mythics were more optimal than Everfrost and opt into those alternatives depending on gamestate.
The unfortunate problem with mythic diversity is that it's really tough for us to beat player psychology, which is to play what's comfortable or popular rather than critically think game-to-game. I don't blame players though, as up until this season there weren't meaningful decisions to be made so that skill hasn't been trained.
You're not accounting for a fundamental bias in that line of thinking.
The players who deviate from the status quo are already more critical-thinking oriented, and therefore are better players on average than those not thinking critically game-to-game. Therefore these players, even if making an item choice that would lower their winrate by deviating from the normal build, may actually win more due to being better players.
A Sylas building Ludens thinking to kill the enemy ADC faster because the Jhin was 2/0/0 in the first 5 minutes is already better in his critical thinking and more likely to win regardless of item choice, even if that Luden's purchase is incorrect over Everfrost, for example.
Did you account for this bias?
That's an interesting thought, with that said it's very hard to measure that or estimate it. There is definitely some non-0 bias there, but I wouldn't have the expertise to really estimate how much that matters. My gut tells me that over a large enough sample size (which we tend to have) it mostly washed out to less than 1% of a total winrate increase. But my guess there is likely as good as yours.