[2024] What is more likely? Worlds Predictions

After seeing the 90%/50%/10% thread on the front page, I thought it would be fun to do something similar.

Ask a "What is more likely A or B" type of question and see what people think.

Example:

What is more likely, no EU team making it out of groups or no NA team?

I 'll say no NA team, despite thinking they are stronger overall. Their best teams are in tough groups and EU's 1st seed is grouped with NA's 3rd. Also H2k has a fairly easy group.