I can give a bit more insight on this data, since I pulled it (I also moonlight as a data analyst in addition to my day job :D)
- 3.3% is the correct number
Of 4 vote failed early FF's, a significant number get dragged out:
- However, if a game ends before 21 minutes, ~90% are held hostage (45% get FF 20'd, 50% end naturally by 20 [open mid or just lose])
- 80% of the games resolve by 25 minutes
- Games that make it to 30 minutes have a 10% winrate
- Games that made it to 40 minutes had a 45% winrate (but the incidence was very low)
While the "come back from behind, win at 45 minutes" moments are some of the highest moments in League, the vast vast majority of the cases are experiences where the majority of the team doesn't want to play the game out and are trapped in a suboptimal experience.
Add on to that that a significant portion of our playerbase is paying by the hour to play.
Having said that, there's clearly a player behavior portion of this and we're still coming at this from multiple angles (also addressing afk, etc.)
Fun facts:
- When I was initially pulling the data, I was really confused how some games were going from 4-1 surrender failed to victory within a few minutes. After inspecting the games, it was from teams "meme surrendering" lol
- After correcting for this, the data made a lot more sense :sweatsmile
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