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Cool concept, if you can get 6 wins before 2 losses then you get a box of MH3 play packs. But what are the odds of winning?

Assuming players are matched against players with the same win/loss streak, 1/16 players will end up getting a box. That’s the combination of 1/64 that go 6-0, 1/128 go WWWWWLW, 1/128 go WWWWLWW, (…), and 1/128 go LWWWWWW.

I believe 3/64 will finish 5-2 for 5000 gem payout and 9/64 finish 4-2 for 2000 gems, giving an average payout of 515 gems.

Given an amortized cost of entry of 4485 gems is worth ~$22.4 (maybe a little more), that means you could statistically get a box for every $358 spent on gems to enter. Not the best payout by itself compared to buying a box for $250 but you can use earned gems to enter without paying cash. I like the concept, I do wonder if Wizards is just trying to offload box stock if MH3 play boxes aren’t selling as well as expected.

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20 days ago - /u/WotC_Jay - Direct link

Originally posted by Cribbs42

Were you able to get more than one box per event?

I think the top FIAB player won 23 of them. Multiples are definitely allowed

19 days ago - /u/WotC_Jay - Direct link

Originally posted by FormerPlayer

Any chance you could tell us how many events that player entered in order to win 23 boxes? 17 lands has the top winner at 19 trophies, with a trophy rate of 33.3%!

No, sorry. Doesn't feel right for me to share stats from other people. I wouldn't have mentioned the 23 wins except that I know they tweeted about it

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