Cool concept, if you can get 6 wins before 2 losses then you get a box of MH3 play packs. But what are the odds of winning?

Assuming players are matched against players with the same win/loss streak, 1/16 players will end up getting a box. That’s the combination of 1/64 that go 6-0, 1/128 go WWWWWLW, 1/128 go WWWWLWW, (…), and 1/128 go LWWWWWW.

I believe 3/64 will finish 5-2 for 5000 gem payout and 9/64 finish 4-2 for 2000 gems, giving an average payout of 515 gems.

Given an amortized cost of entry of 4485 gems is worth ~$22.4 (maybe a little more), that means you could statistically get a box for every $358 spent on gems to enter. Not the best payout by itself compared to buying a box for $250 but you can use earned gems to enter without paying cash. I like the concept, I do wonder if Wizards is just trying to offload box stock if MH3 play boxes aren’t selling as well as expected.

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