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I've not sat and actually done the maths but what would it mean the actual average drop rate becomes?
With bad luck mitigation, the increasing drop rates for those who go dry would mean the average drop rate actually reduces from 1/3k, I think it's something we'd want to understand so to grasp the impact this kind of system has with respect to the economy (how many DWH will come in and be sold on the GE essentially).
I do generally agree that I think it is unfair that a handful of players will go disproprotionately dry and ultimately an item like DWH, an item like enhanced seed from CG are incredibly important progression points for irons, many will just quit the game entirely and give up if they are on that kind of dry streak.
There's also a culture of not catering to ironmen, I'd argue mains care to an extent too if doing the content for money but it is a sentiment that is made clear at times. There's a simplicity to drops working the way they do also and we need to consider how we communicate it to players when some arbitrary content works different to other things. The new ring vestiges at DT2 have this issue aside from valid criticism over how they work.
yeah no clue how you'd do this analytically.
Was how I was initially going to do it and then I realised it was going to be tough and I didn't have time quickly over lunch haha
Think simulating was definitely a good way to do it!
Just ran some simulations of 100000 players doing CG for an enhanced weapon seed.
Without any changes, I got an average droprate of 400.2, min = 1, max = 5700.
With bad luck mitigation, I got an average droprate of 381.2, min = 1, max = 2275.
Interesting! So roughly speaking 5% if you are increasing drop rate as you described.
It's interesting to then think about the psychologic impact on players - ironmen presumably would feel more compelled to continue until they get the drop and would move on.
Perhaps mains feel something similar, if they're dry - it feels worth capitalising on your investment and seeing it through to completion. As much as the vestiges for DT2 bosses have other issues, there's definitely a similar 'sunk cost' thing going on there and players will feel they need to see it through or they've wasted time.
Ultimately that aspect is far harder to ascertain but I reckon it also ups the amount of kills happening and thus drops too.
I'm not that uncomfortable with the numbers here though, whether we can do something like this will ultimately come down to more than me - the team's view and naturally... the community as well
Man good job you hit Kieren with the math hard.
I support this, especially for pets please.
I fished 986k karambwans post 99 fishing for heron in addition to 1-99 being before tempoross, 44k tempoross pulls for tiny tempor, and currently 8k GOTR pulls and no pet.
I'm always partial to some good maths! it was my education background :)
Wouldn't that just effectively buff the drop rate of everything that's rare across the board? What's the functional difference at that point from just buffing drop rates?
It absolutely does, it's a question of how much really - and how much is too much.
See the other comment thread I started as it's directly what I wanted to know too! tl;dr ~5% higher drop rate on average.
See the other comment thread I started as it's directly what I wanted to know too! tl;dr ~5% higher drop rate on average.
It's not 5% higher drop rate on average, OP didn't give enough context even if the math is entirely correct. It's a 5% increase on the average drop rate only if everyone who does the content doesn't stop until they get said unique (which isn't and will never be the case).
The real number would likely be around +2% or less. Not only that, but that direct increase only applies to chase uniques, which people actually go for. You have to compute all the other uniques which will no longer drop because many people now finish their grinds earlier.
Overall, I'd be really surprised if it meant more than a +1% increase.
Yeah that is a great point, some proportion of people will stop before getting one.
Though this system would incentivise seeing it through.
That effect will be stronger for ironmen than it is for mains who quite possibly are very happy to stop. Examples like just doing Shamans whilst on slayer task for example.
I would reconsider the use of the word average! 5% is more of a cap.
