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how to employ multiple overlapping axes of randomness for additional replayability
This shit is bullshit and should end already!
how to employ multiple overlapping axes of randomness for additional replayability
This shit is bullshit and should end already!
This isn't talking about RNG-gating end-game content (which I believe is what you're worried about), but about the concept of having content that can vary in as many different ways as possible simultaneously. For example, even a simple league like Breach has the following axes:
All of these are either randomly good or bad for a particular Breach. This means that sometimes you get an amazing perfect experience, sometimes it's a near-miss (which makes you want to keep trying for a perfect one), and sometimes it's a complete dud. The variance between duds and amazing ones is what makes it feel good to find the good ones. Just like when you finally find a really valuable unique, it makes up for the feeling of all the 1 alch ones you waded through before. If we took away the dud Breaches and 1 alch uniques, Path of Exile would be a less exciting game to play.
Something has been bothering me for a long time now from watching podcasts, listening to interviews, reading posts, etc.
GGG seems very obsessed with player retention. It is obviously a very important metric for them since they constantly bring it up when comparing leagues. It's also setting a trend in league challenges. They are getting longer and longer, with the most extreme example of Betrayal's "Atlas Objectives" challenge. This challenge in particular requires players to either run A LOT of maps, or log in daily for the majority of the league to get it done.
The reason I have a problem with this is because I do not want to play Path of Exile full time. ARPGs are a bit of an anomaly when it comes to player behaviour. Generally players will play for "short" stints and then quit to go play other games but consistently come back for the next league/season/ladder reset. With GGGs constant focus on player retention it worries me that they will get players to play longer but eventually burn out and then NOT return for the next league because they just played 13 weeks of Path of Exile and restarting the grind might not be the most appealing thing at that moment.
I only have my own experiences to draw from but I would consider myself an "average" player. When looking at my own behaviour, all of my purchases for PoE have been near the beginning of a league when the supporter packs are new and shiny and I'm playing the most amount of time daily. Thus I am surprised when GGG focuses on "Player Retention" as opposed to "Player Return Rate". Now obviously I don't have data but I would suspect that the majority of their sales are made in the first couple weeks of a new league which explains why they are very strict with their 13 week schedule.
I am concerned for the long term future of the game when player retention is the message I keep hearing over and over. Make great leagues and players will come in bigger and bigger droves. Don't cause them to burn out and quit forever.
When we refer to Player Retention here we are actually referring to what you are calling the Player Return Rate.
In fact, the central thesis of the talk is that it's better to get players to want to return next cycle than it is to try and keep a player playing forever.
So a lot of what you said actually summarises the talk we are giving.
If there is a trend for challenges being harder each league, I can assure you that it's not intentional.
Let me ask you this question: If I told you to create some challenges that are intended to take players a 1 month to complete, how accurately do you think you would be able to hit that target without having a a month to test it? Yes, you can do some modelling in excel but quite honestly it's not easy to make predictions accurately over that kind of time scale. Players tend to always find ways of doing things faster than we expect, so the designers of challenges tend to err on the side of making them harder.
So what I'm saying is Hanlon's Razor applies here!