[2019] Anticipated Necronium Bar price

Originally posted by ___PEZ___

Estimate: 2600 gp per Necronium bar at a bare minimum

Things to understand before I launch into this:

Rune is used in Elder Rune. Rune smithing experience per hour is already garbage compared to higher tiers, so the fact that it's a material for higher level smithing means its price will only make it even worse for training.

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Necrite and Phasmatite ores have 7% less HP than Orichalcite and Drakolith ores (1300 vs 1400), despite being higher leveled. Hardness is irrelevant with a decent pickaxe. So T70 ores are quicker to mine than T60 ores.

Necrite and Phasmatite ores have a 20% higher rockertunity bonus than Orichalcite and Drakolith ores (x6 vs x5), making it even easier to mine T70 than T60. This is also true when compared against Banite ore.

Necrite and Phasmatite ores have a slightly higher experience modifer than Orichalcite and Drakolith ores.

Necronium can be smithed to +4 while Orikalkum can only be smithed to +3, resulting in higher experience rates for Necronium.

For all these reasons, Necronium bars will become more popular than Orikalkum bars for training.

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For the foreseeable future, Bane bars will most likely only used for training by the wealthy. Experience rates for Necronium are already good enough as is, which I will get into soon, so no need to splurge on Bane ore just yet. If Banite is out ruled out, then so is Elder Rune.

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So far I have established why Necronium is very likely to be the de-facto bar for training smithing. Now comes the pricing.

Things to understand before I launch into this further:

Burial armor requires fully upgraded armor, for example Necronium Gauntlets +4.

Fully upgraded armor takes a while time to smith. The experience rate is decent. You can sell the armor.

Burial armor takes very little time to smith compared to non-burial armor. The experience rate is great. The armor is sacrificed.

If you're not following along then here's how it works: cheapskates make the +4 armor for decent exp/hour, and then they sell it to the wealthy who destroy it for great exp/hour.

If you are following along, then here's my math:

https://i.redd.it/ap8ypclqr5921.png

Now for some explanation:

1. I can smith 800 progress in 45 seconds. [90 smithing] [90 firemaking] [ All Varrock and New Varrock tasks] [Crystal Hamer (perkless)] [Luminite Injector] [Superheat Form]. Keep in mind, this is on gauntlets which don't require reheating since they are completed before they are cooled. Stopping to reheat will lower exp/hour, but it's minor (1 second to reheat every ~50 seconds). Getting used to the menus is the greater time sink.
2. Suity's smithing calculator is a bit misleading at first glance. It gives experience per tier rather than assuming you're going through all the tiers sequentially. You need to calculate the average of any tiers that you plan to smith. The calculator gives 122K exp/hour for base through +4 which is pretty close to what I calculated (118K). But neither is correct when accounting for reheating and menu navigation.
3. It takes around 49 minutes to smith a full +4 set from scratch. This gives 96,000 experience. It takes around 6 minutes to smith a burial set which gives 48,000 experience. So burial sets give 50% of the experience for 88% less time taken.
4. Now that you know the experience rates, you can work backwards for the cost. Any comparison will work, but I chose construction because it's f**king god-awful and people are still willing to spend 5.2 gp/xp for sweaty experience rates with teak prawn brokers. The new smithing system is not sweaty. It's incredibly AFK. So if people are willing to spend 5.2 gp/xp for 650K xp/hour at probably 80 APM, then it's not hard to believe people will pay the same gp/xp for 450K xp/hour at probably 10 APM. Keep in mind that construction is largely useless while smithing has the appeal of masterwork, so gp/xp for smithing will probably be higher than that of construction.
5. This calculation assumes that people making the +4 sets are willing to do so at break-even costs, meaning 118K xp/hour at no expense. If smithing is valued at greater than 5.22 gp/xp, then making +4 sets becomes profitable.
6. This calculation completely neglects to account for the Necronium bar requirement for masterwork, which is probably going to be minor in the scheme of it all, but it still supports the argument this is floor price.