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Hey Slayers,
just recently we have seen a revamped system of earning Hunt Pass experience hit the servers, and it has been creating even more buzz than in the days leading up to it. I have read several unusual claims, some closer and some further from the truth, and decided that we might want to look at the changes with open eyes and as little bias as possible. And with some juicy, juicy math that we all love.
Hunt Pass Experience Gains
Let's start by utilising the Hunt Pass and Bounty Token data, gathered throughout several previous patches, to find out what were the real XP gains. We will compare them with the new XP values. We can do this thanks to knowing the percentage chance of any Rarity of a Bounty being drafted. A simple weighted average reveals that a Bounty Token was worth approximately 30.5 Hunt Pass XP. Following this logic, XP value of a Hunt is equal to the value of a Bounty Token weighted by its chance to drop said Token.
I have marked the Droprate and XP per Hunt for Escalation 10-50 with an asterisk. Why? Because while you would drop a token roughly every third such Escalation, it provided multiple tokens somewhat often. For this reason, I calculated the XP per Hunt using the number that said you receive 0.54 of a Bounty Token on average.
| Hunt Tier | Bounty Token Droprate | Old XP per Hunt | New XP per Hunt | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral or Elemental | 9.69% | 2.955 | 10 | + 7.005 |
| Dire | 11.93% | 3.639 | 15 | + 11.361 |
| Heroic | 13.60% | 4.148 | 20 | + 15.852 |
| Heroic+ | 15.62% | 4.764 | 25 | + 20.236 |
| Escalation 1-13 | 26.43% | 8.061 | 10 | + 1.939 |
| Escalation 10-50 | 32.57% * | 16.47 * | 15 | - 1.47 |
Looking at these numbers, it becomes apparent that we are facing a near-universal improvement to the speed of earning Hunt Pass XP. The only Hunt Tier less efficient than previously is Escalation 10-50, while general hunts received a major buff to their earned experience. While we will assume the value of Escalation 10-50 to be correct in the absence of better data, I have to point out here that the data we have is sparse. This might mean that the number is inaccurate.
To put these numbers in perspective, 25 XP from Heroic+ is an equivalent of 80% drop chance of a Bounty Token. So why doesn't it feel as good as the numbers suggest?
Obfuscation and Gambling
Now that I have your attention, I will openly clarify that no, Dauntless doesn't have mechanics based on gambling. There's no moral outrage here: random drop chances of loot simply share a common trait with games of chance, without seeking to abuse it. What am I on about?
A release of endorphins, your "happy hormone". This is what is released to your brain when you finally put down a tough boss, finish your workout or, you guessed it, obtain that very rare drop in a game. Endorphins make you feel elated. Like you have just achieved something worthwhile. They make you feel like that Bounty Token is worth more than it is.
But it isn't. Your brain is tricking you, and it's not even its fault. It simply feels great when something unusual happens to you, and looting a Bounty Token was exactly that. Humans like rare things, Tokens are fairly rare. These things go together. Worse yet, human brains are awful at grasping probability. To us, the old system felt great and rewarding because we got to receive a rare thing, we got rewarded for it with a Bounty. Said Bounty had a juicy number associated with it. But the average value was terrible in comparison. It was just hidden behind two gamified layers of obfuscation that prevented us from properly understanding the real XP gains.
Sure, it all felt great, but our feelings and emotions lead us astray more often than we would like it.
Community Concerns
Now that I have presented you with my thoughts, data and calculations on the matter, it is time we look at some concerns raised around the community. I don't expect my answers to be taken as Gospel, but I will stick to the facts so that they are as close to the truth as possible.
-
This kills Escalation's viability for Hunt Pass farming.
It does and it doesn't. The change makes the mode that was an undisputed best at completing your Hunt Pass, through Bounties and Bounty Token drops both, more in line with others. You can still zip through Bounties thanks to the stream of Behemoths offered in a short time-frame, but you won't be additionally rewarded with nearly double the XP a Heroic+ Hunt would give. These values reward effort more fairly and remove the situation where one type of hunt is superior to all others. There is more of a room for your personal preference and choice. -
The entire change was made because PHXL saw the speed of completing Hunt Pass in Escalation and wanted to take it away, forcing more grind.
Well, no. I explained most of the reasoning in the previous point, but here I have this to add: if PHXL wanted us to grind more, why would they increase the XP gains across the board? The system is objectively, mathematically better for finishing the Pass quickly now, all in the name of the Vault Coins being a realistic goal. -
This change forces me to play less often because Bounty Tokens run out faster.
Again, yes and no. If you, as a player, are motivated solely by the objectives given to you by the Bounties, then you might find yourself playing less often. On the flip side, the change removes the necessity of waiting for Bounty Tokens, as all of your hunts will give you XP now. This is a clear upside from the previous system, where lack of Bounty Tokens meant doing dry runs in hopes of receiving a Token by chance.
This change gives you more control and predictability on your road to level 50. -
The new system is worse for casual players.
I understand a "casual player" as a player who doesn't invest much time into the game. We now have the ability to pop into the game for literally a single hunt, and still achieve some progress towards our Hunt Pass. This has not been the case previously. Not being tied to Tokens and grinding for them removes necessary time commitment, thus being more friendly towards casual players.
If we are talking about "casual player" as a player who struggles with higher-level content, then yes, the system doesn't reward them as much as people who can clear the hardest hunts. However, the new "worse" is still better than the old system's best. A player running less difficult content will still achieve more in the current system, than in the previous one.
This is not an exhaustive list, by any means, but it covers the claims I have personally encountered the most in the recent days. I have no doubts that more will surface, possibly in the discussion under this post.
Thank you for reading and clear skies, Slayers.
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