Lots of good discussion/conversation here. I think you make very good points about the skill ceiling at a super high level meaning that wins can come down to minute moments of luck like spawns and ragdoll. It might be that we've got the top skill bracket dialled in too tightly- what you're explaining definitely isn't the intention of the system.
We're going to keep monitoring the situation and likely make some tweaks as we go. I mentioned on discord yesterday that really the system is mostly meant to keep new players from being stomped as they learn the game. We don't really benefit from turning the game into a dice-roll at a really high level as you've explained!