[2021] How much would Boris the Shopkeeper sell a Scuttlecrab for? [Theorycrafting]

When you go to the shop and you buy a control ward it costs 75g. Now the scuttle crab is worth around 100g and also gives vision.

If Boris got his hands on a scuttle crab, how much would he sell it for in the shop?

1. We know that the vision it gives lasts around 1 minute. Furthermore, the vision is in a fixed location, you don’t get to choose where to place the circle. However, the vision cannot be removed by the enemy team.
2. In Season 4, you could buy stealth wards for 30g I believe which lasted around 2mins. Hence the gold value of 1 minute of vision is 15g.
3. Now, for vision which cannot be removed by the enemy team, we must use a difficult comparison. Maokai saplings are the only comparable vision tool which cannot be removed by sweeper. The average Maokai kda is 2.6/6.1/10.6 (source https://www.leagueofgraphs.com/champions/stats/maokai), and with a normal distribution this implies an average Maokai kill value of 303.48g. i.e Maokai has an average bounty of 3.48g. Since the average Maokai throws 75 saplings per game, this gives a gold value per sapling of 303.48*6.1/75 = 24.68g. However, saplings last for 30 seconds, and from our previous calculations we know that 30 seconds of vision is worth 7.5g. Thus the gold value of the unsweepable vision stat in Maokai saplings is 24.68-7.5 = 17.18g.
4. Finally, for vision in a fixed location, we can consider the scuttle crab itself. Other methods may use Ashe E or Quinn W, however our analysis suggests these conventions for gold value of fixed vision are inaccurate. The scuttle crab gives 70-126g based on the camp’s level, which averages to 98g. We have already determined the other attributes from the scuttle crab are worth 17.18g and 15g. This leaves 98-15-17.18=65.82g value for the fixed location of the vision. Clearly this number is erroneous, so we may adjust this relative to inflation of 8% on summoners rift to give a season 4 gold value of (98-15-17.18)*1.08^-4=48g.
5. Assuming Boris wanted to make a profit of 10% per sale, this gives a final scuttle crab shop value of (15+48+17.18)*1.1=88.198g

Conclusion: Boris would sell a scuttle crab for 88 gold.

With this knowledge, would you buy a scuttle crab instead of a control ward?