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I think you're right with the Serra avatar and whoever put this together wasn't aware of how she was originally obtained and it was a mistake including her.
She was given to those that pre-ordered a physical booster box of Ikoria at their LGS. By offering her avatar for sale after the fact undermines the spirit of past and future exclusive promotions WotC offers to LGSs.
Regardless, I hope with her now being for sale we'll eventually see all of the exclusive avatars including Phage the Untouchable, Jace, the Mind Sculptor, Li'l Giri, and fblthp... amongst others.
It's always hard to make predictions, especially about the future, but I would be super shocked if Jace, Phage, or fblthp were ever available by other means.
Do the bundles drop in price if you already have some of the items in it or no?
Yes, basically every bundle will prorate down based on what you already have. The price you'll see in the store will include any of those reductions
But...couldn't you have said the same about the Serra avatar up until this moment?
No, we see them as different cases. JtMS, Phage, and Fblthp were things granted to recognize that you personally performed a notable act (winning decathlon or playing in beta). Players earned them. Serra (and Li'l Giri) were just part of bundles that were only sold rarely. Getting them was a purchase.
Choosing to break up and sell those bundles differently is just a business/product decision. Choosing to provide another way to get the earned avatars would be compromising the point of them.
Bit of an adjacent question but, are all lands on a semi-controlled rotation for being available as a daily deal?
I missed the opportunity to grab the Phyrexia All Will Be One lands (the stylized monochrome ones) back then and I've never seen them in the store since. I'm pretty sure I've seen every other set of lands available on Arena at least once.
Were they part of a limited deal that I'm not aware of? (Just to know if I'm always saving 25k for no reason.)
I don't think there are any of the lands from mainline sets that we would consider exclusive. I think those lands are as likely as any other to come back around sometime
Choosing to break up and sell those bundles differently is just a business/product decision. Choosing to provide another way to get the earned avatars would be compromising the point of them.
Is this a guarantee that “trophy” cosmetics will not be monetized ever? I mean, considering how everything in Arena is time-based, I think it is reasonable to expect any exclusivity to have an expiration date as well.
Making guarantees that something won't ever happen is a dangerous game, so I'm not going to go that far. But the exclusivity of those avatars has real value for the players that earned them. That's what we built them to do. And I can't think of any reason good enough to decrease that.
for example, my oko bundle was 1200 gold ... wasn't sure what i was missing so i grabbed it. only got a alt card style. my dog bundle was like 3000. got the mustache dog and 1 sleeve.
/u/WotC_Jay should i give up any hope of previous historic/explorer anthology bundles ever coming back? i've refused to craft cards from those bundles on the hopes that they do return. just been punishing myself i guess hoping the company does us a solid but looks like that was a dumb move on my part.
When/if those bundles return, they'll likely be prorated as well. Craft away.