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tldr: you need to purchase 407 packs on average to complete ZNR. To complete all rares would take you 249 packs, and you would end up with 46/80 mythics.
I have been seeing multiple posts trying to calculate number of packs required to complete a set. Often times these numbers seem to disagree, so I have decided to run some simulations that try to take all factors of MTGA booster packs into account.
Some observations:
- To create a full playset, mythics are the limiting factor in all cases. After a certain point, commons and uncommons become vault points and rares are converted into gems.
- ZNR has 33% more mythics, but ~%10 higher mythic pull rate, hence it takes much more packs to complete ZNR relative to previous expansions
- Finally one might wonder how many packs it would take to complete all the sets? From the fact that mythics are limiting, we can take the sum of packs purchased for each set individually. This is an upper bound, due to the fact that after completing each set there would be some residual vault progress, but the end result would be very close to the sum of 4297
If you would like to see the code and suggest changes, see Github Link. Here are some of the factors I have taken into consideration.
- Rare vs. mythic rate (adjusted for ZNR)
- In pack replacement wildcard rates
- In pack replacement wildcard pity timers
- Wildcard wheels
- Vault
- Rare duplicate protection
- Excess rares converted to gems and used to open (but not purchase) new packs
Finally if there are any more stats or questions I could provide, I will try to answer them here.
- pandawine
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