[2022] Is there really a winner/loser queue?

Hey, u/catnip-addict1010 I just saw you posted this, I wanted to make sure you had a chance to see this response.

The short answer is no there is no winners or losers queue.

The long answer is still no, but with a bit more details on the problem you brought up. A bit of a caveat here, I am not a designer on matchmaking, we have smarter people than me who handle that. But while I don't know the details of the system I have spoken with them about the system.

When this topic comes up I often see someone mention something along the lines of "the game tries to give you a 50% winrate". This comes from a misunderstanding of the matchmaking system. It doesn't care what your account/season/recent games winrate is, and isn't trying to get that to 50%. The system tries to make it so that each individual game gives each team a 50% chance of winning. This comes from each player's MMR (Matchmaking Rating), basically, each player has a number that is used to represent their skill. The system pulls together a group of players with similar MMRs trying to create a fair game, where each team has a 50% chance of winning, (while also taking into account things like role preference, party size) and creates a match.

Once everyone has hit accept there is nothing more that the matchmaking can do, so you/your team/your opponent's actions are in total control from there. So then picks/bans start to influence the outcome of the game, if your team drafts a poor composition then you are more likely to lose, a strong one and you are more likely to win. (hint hint, having a tank makes a comp stronger.)

Then in the game itself obviously has an influence on the outcome. If you get first blood your chances of winning go up, you get aced it goes down. If someone spends the game raging in chat they are hurting their chances of winning the game.

So going back to that MMR number itself, there is a lot that could go into creating it. Let's say that 100% of the time players got their preferred roles, and each player's MMR was 100% accurate, and going into each game each had had a PERFECTLY equal 50% chance of winning. What it can't take into account is a player's current mental state or external factors. If I just lost 3 games in a row (that were totally not my fault) it's understandable that I might be tilted and make some mistakes or get frustrated more easily. Or if I am playing with a poor internet connection, if something distracts me outside of the game. These are all going to affect how I play in a way that the MMR system can't account for.

This is compounded by the number of players the system could even match you with, as you climb in skill there are naturally fewer players the system has to work with, then of those at the same skill level you all need to be looking for a game at the same time, while still taking role preference into account. And even you are still missing variables that we can't track, along with the 9 other players having influence over the outcome of the match. Basically, matchmaking is deceptively difficult.

So back to the idea of a winners/losers queue. I often see players bring up the idea that having a winners/loser queue somehow keeps people playing the game. This is always an interesting idea, and I have a hard time understanding the thought process here. If we did use a system like this do you think you would play more or would you stop? I know I would stop playing, and in fact most players would, not just from the moral and manipulative aspects that a system inherently has, but because it is less fun. It would be really easy to build a system that promised you a 50% winrate on your account. The problem is that each game wouldn't be particularly engaging, and this would cause players to churn. In game development, there is something called a "Flow Channel" basically this states that the flow state/best experiences come from when a player is being appropriately challenged, if the challenge is too easy a player gets bored, if it is too difficult it causes anxiety/frustration. Either of these can, justifiably, cause a player to leave the game. This is also exactly what a winners/losers queue would cause if we were making it so that you were constantly winning you would get bored very quickly and if we were making you lose you get frustrated and quit. So if the goal is to keep players engaged, and playing the game, then creating a winners/losers queue is an awful way to do it, this is far more likely to cause players to leave.

We (the dev team) play the game too, like an unhealthy amount. We want each match to be the best it can be, and if I knew that going into a game I was going to be in a winners/losers queue I can promise you that myself and every member of my team would be raging to change it. We, like all of you, want to go into a game and know that our, and our team's, skills are what determines the outcome of each match.

So why do these streaks happen? Humans are very good at finding patterns in things, even when there aren't any. And are much more likely to remember patterns that stand out. Such as losing 4 games followed by winning 4 games. So these are going to stick in our memories more, let alone the fact that if I go into a game thinking I am going to win/lose that is going to have an effect on how I play. So if you notice you are on a winning streak and think that this means it will continue you'll likely play a bit better than normal...Just try not to notice when you are on a losing streak or you might make things worse. You also likely already know that negative emotes are more likely to stick with us, so feeling like you are on a losing streak is going to be more memorable, and feeling like that is out of our control feels that much worse, so you are more likely to remember it.

Hopefully, that helps give you a better understanding of how the system works. Really the best thing you can do if you are on a losing streak is to step back and take a break, maybe play an ARAM or put the game down for a bit because going into your next game when you are tilted is more likely to continue that streak.