[2022] Rankedsystem Solo/Flex Que

Low win rates can be deceiving because the system can find your MMR very quickly and it uses MMR in matchmaking. Some players get lucky and the system can't find opponents good enough early on and they end up with a positive win rate until they hit Master. The win rate is positive because their team MMR gap (their team - other team) has averaged positive for most of their matches.

Other players end up unlucky and the system is able to find similar and sometimes harder opponents to them and they end up with much harder matches and a negative team MMR gap on average.

You can have two equally good players with a pretty wide range of win rate (e.g. 45-55%). Because MMR is shown to be more accurate at predicting match outcomes, if you have 2 players with the same MMR and different win rates, it means they just had harder / easier match histories.

We can tell this in the data by:

1. Find two players with the same MMR but one with a lower win rate and one with a higher one.
2. Check the MMR gaps in all their matches.
3. Confirm that both players win just as much given the same MMR gap, and lose just as much with a losing MMR gap.
4. Also confirm the higher win rate player had easier MMR gaps.

And that's just what we see in the data.

There are players in Masters with lower win rates, but when we look at their match histories, we find it's only because they had harder than usual schedules for whatever reason. When we look at their matches where they actually have the same MMR gaps as the higher win rate players, they win just as often.