We also have no information wether the Storm-Weathered Drafting Top lead actually drops or not, nobody has found it yet.
Update: After downgrading my blacksmithing to tier 9 instead of tier 10, I pulled the Frog Metal Buckle lead on toon 5 today. I'm not saying for sure this is what's required, just that it happened to work for me. I'm hoping we can get some more data on this.
@ZOS_GinaBruno could we please get confirmation that this is what the developers intended? That they intend us to re-spec and run the writs at a tier lower than normal?