[2021] Crafting feels kinda bugged

I appreciate that you are giving feedback on the way it feels. That’s valuable feedback. It isn’t bugged but I totally hear you that it feels that way. This is something that we are working to remedy and have a prototype that we have been testing but it isn’t quite right.

So, finding that 80% of items fracture by 60% success rate actually makes a lot of sense if you do the math behind it.

Let’s say an item starts at 95% success rate and goes down by 5% each time you craft. I know that’s not quite right but I’m assuming you’re using some glyphs in there too and just as a thought experiment it’s representative enough for now.

The chance that you get the item all the way down to 60% and succeed on that craft is 0.95 * 0.9 * 0.85 * 0.8…*0.6. The percent chance that all those crafts are successful is 11.9% so getting an item crafted that many times successfully is really actually quite rare. All of the crafts are above 60% and half of them are in that 80%+ range where it feels like a given that it should succeed.

The really crazy thing is just in those first 4 crafts which feel like a sure thing, you only have a 58% chance of success. That’s only slightly better than even odds that you’ll get past 80%. Feels crazy right?

I just want to be clear that the success rate will not just go down by 5% each time so it’s not quite a perfect representation of the numbers but hopefully this gives some insight into why it feels like you’re getting screwed over and over.

Each craft is independent yes that is true. I was trying to illustrate the point that if you are crafting an item from 100% down to 60%, chances are that in that time, it will fracture.

If you’ve made it to 60%, it is a 60% chance of success.

The percentage chance to fracture did not change in 0.8.2. The percentage chance to fracture is accurate. If you believe it to not be accurate then please record a significant number of contiguous crafts where your fracture rate is too high and link it to me. I know this isn’t really what you want to hear but it is likely right and as a human, you are disproportionately remembering the failures vs the successes.

I understand that it is frustrating but if I’m way off on what’s going on, I’m curious how would you suggest we fix it?

I get what you’re saying about not enjoying the system and that’s totally valid. We are actively working to improve crafting core functionality and player experience. I have been very careful to not suggest that the system is perfect or that it is providing the exact experience we want, because it isn’t. I’m just really trying very hard to dispel this myth that the numbers are inaccurate or that the player is being lied to. I’ve seen so many comments along the lines of “with the bugged crafting system…”. Just accepting it as fact that the numbers are wrong.

The system isn’t perfect and we are working on that. In the meantime, it’s not bugged is just about all I can say in response to those types of posts.

That is part of one of several lines we are exploring yea. It has some pitfalls but it’s also promising.