I appreciate that you are giving feedback on the way it feels. That’s valuable feedback. It isn’t bugged but I totally hear you that it feels that way. This is something that we are working to remedy and have a prototype that we have been testing but it isn’t quite right.
So, finding that 80% of items fracture by 60% success rate actually makes a lot of sense if you do the math behind it.
Let’s say an item starts at 95% success rate and goes down by 5% each time you craft. I know that’s not quite right but I’m assuming you’re using some glyphs in there too and just as a thought experiment it’s representative enough for now.
The chance that you get the item all the way down to 60% and succeed on that craft is 0.95 * 0.9 * 0.85 * 0.8…*0.6. The percent chance that all those crafts are successful is 11.9% so getting an item crafted that many times successfully is really actually quite rare. All of the crafts are above 60% and half of them are in that 80%+ range where it feels like a given that it should succeed.
The really crazy thing is just in those first 4 crafts which feel like a sure thing, you only have a 58% chance of success. That’s only slightly better than even odds that you’ll get past 80%. Feels crazy right?
I just want to be clear that the success rate will not just go down by 5% each time so it’s not quite a perfect representation of the numbers but hopefully this gives some insight into why it feels like you’re getting screwed over and over.