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So, I try to form my opinions strictly off of looking at the stats, and I've been a bit bothered by something I keep seeing.
Aurelion sol has a 0.7% pickrate. He was nerfed with he reached a 55% winrate.
Garen midlane has a 1.6% pickrate -- more than twice that -- with a 54.5% winrate.
Then there's Kled, who has the same pickrate as Aurelion Sol in the midlane but with a 56% winrate.
And Nocturne, who's traditionally a jungler, has a 2.22% pickrate in the midlane with a 54% winrate.
In short, it seems like Riot allows champions to be overpowered in the midlane as long as it isn't their main role, even when their midlane pickrate is higher than many mages, so it isn't just small fringe communities playing these picks. Maybe it's just thought that people won't notice? But they have higher pickrates AND drastically higher winrates than a number of mage laners.
My other concern:
Of the top 10 most popular midlaners, yasuo and assassin have taken the top ~8 slots for months.
Despite this, many of them sit around 53-54% winrates regularly. Diana and Katarina are especially egregious, having ~53.5% winrates with MASSIVE pick and ban rates for months and months on end. But Riot won't even talk about them.
Instead of nerfing the overtuned AP assassins, Riot decided to match AD assassins against them by overtuning Dirk, which now gives 10 lethality for 50 gold.
So I don't think AD assassins are overpowered against other assassins -- dirk was buffed so they'd be able to fight them -- but it left mages in the dust. Mages have no option to itemize against Katarina/Diana, and, unlike AP assassins, they can't rush armguard against AD assassins because they need mana.
I think this is the explanation for the above kled/garen winrates. Toplaners being picked mid are now excelling so much because midlane is an assassin matchup almost every single game, and a lot of toplaners can dismantle assassins in the 1v1. But these toplaners don't get beaten by mages -- mages are just kind of...left in the dust.
Final point:
Riot has been buffing mages over and over and over again to try to force them to be viable against the assassins they've powercrept, but it isn't working. Xerath received 2 massive rounds of buffs, and barely broke a 50% winrate. Ziggs is still nonexistent despite massive buffs. Anivia's still too vulnerable now that a bunch of assassins have hard CC to interrupt her ulti for some reason (Ekko, Qiyana, Sylas, Diana, Kassadin...) Veigar is so vulnerable midlane that he's just picked botlane now.
Summary:
- Riot seems to want to keep AP assassins overpowered, and refuses to nerf them despite massive pickrates and winrates.
- To that end, Riot is trying to buff other things up to their level instead of nerfing them. They've overtuned Dirk (10 lethality for 50 gold) and now they keep trying to buff mages' offense, but it isn't working. They still face an assassin that one shots them every game. Instead, it's just making everyone into glass cannons, with mages being overtuned to match the assassins Riot has left overtuned.
- Because assassins are so popular, it's hard to have this discussion without inevitably angering the people playing the champions that are overperforming. I'm trying to say this lightly. Please don't feel targeted just because your picks fall into one of the categories I've mentioned.
So, in conclusion, I personally think Riot should stop trying these obscure buffs for mages, and simply nerf the top AP assassins. A protobelt nerf would help as well (Sylas and Ekko having 3-4 dashes is disgusting.)
Then, don't nerf AD assassins, but simply revert the recent Dirk buff, which was given just to help AD assassins contend with the overpowered AP assassins (and which made Talon into a menace.)
I personally feel this would help suppress the power creep they're pushing hard right now while finally allowing mages to feel viable as well as allowing the ADC role to feel less constantly threatened by assassins every single game. Not only this, but it'd help with the faux perception of AP items being overtuned, which is driven not by mages, but by AP assassins abusing the items which are balanced around their weaker mage users.
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