[2022] Phreak on TL’s drafts: "There is no draft where Lucian on ten is correct or Graves on ten is correct. You have screwed up – that was the wrong choice."

Obviously the context here is without an engage somewhere else in the comp and I stand behind that.

Thank you Pira for the interview! It was fun!

I think Lucian in a solo lane is a defensible option. But the winrate delta of an extreme counter-pick is like 5%. The winrate delta of picking no engage is much higher than that.

So, sorry, you’ve inted if you’ve gotten the draft to that point.

Hey, so you’re doing this wrong. Champions have arbitrarily high resting win rates so just taking the resulting win rate doesn’t say much. Illaoi vs trundle is “illaoi is strong” and “illaoi is good vs. trundle” until you separate those two you don’t have anything to say yet.

Some matchups are north of 5%. Sylas malphite is +8-10. But in general a hard counter is roughly 5%. Then there are a bunch of roughly flat ones that pros call “counters” that aren’t.

No I’m just taking 5% as a reasonable measurement of a hard counter. Sylas malphite is the hardest counter in the game. If the single highest matchup delta is 8%, then just saying anything north of 5 is a hard counter holds water in my book.

That’s what I’m saying. The average actual hard counter that’s worth considering crippling a comp for is one that provides +5% win rate. The question is then how much is hurts your overall comp.