devtrackers.gg
This is a real discussion. The [redacted]/Muted/Banned memes can be fun, but we're here to solve a puzzle. Let's please skip those for this post.
In our previous post on fishing we promised some videos on areas of our research. A few streamers have graciously volunteered their time for us.
Today we're talking about Baited Expectations. A set of 8 cards returns a unique fishing item. Baited Expectations is naturally found in Desert Spring, though it's uncommon.
We gave a few hundred cards to each of mbXtreme and Slipperyjim8. Check out their videos to see what they received and hear some fun commentary on fishing.
Additional info on our work with Baited Expectations:
All total, we've documented ~400 set turn-ins (~3200 cards) of Baited Expectations.
Here is the distribution of loot so far, including the sets opened in the videos above: spoiler
.
There is no profit here; this is for science! We end up buying at an average of around 7c/card since the market is so thin. We've burned approximately ~22,000 chaos on this task so far.
Based on the prior probabilities of other card sets' rare outcomes, we expect we must turn in thousands of sets of Baited Expectations to be confident we have a comprehensive list of all possible outcomes.
We do not think Baited Expectations can give Angler's Plait. Baited Expectation specifies it returns a unique fishing item, not a corrupted unique fishing item. Angler's Plait is always corrupted.
Despite hundreds of turn-ins, we've never seen Reefbane. We've heard rumors that Reefbane can result, but we've seen no hard evidence. Either Reefbane is very rare, or we're very unlucky, or it's not actually a possibility. If in fact Reefbane does not qualify for Baited Expectations's "Unique Fishing Item" class, that's very important information.
Huge thanks again to mbXtreme and Slipperyjim8 for helping document our efforts. Special thanks to SlothNumber1 who did a huge amount of the card purchasing, and thanks to all our other wonderful experimenters in the Discord group as well.
As always, I'll do my best to answer your serious questions about fishing in the comments. Tight lines, exile!
External link →