Originally posted by Immortalis: Modders do not get early access as a rule. Some might, others might not, ultimately it is at Paradox discretion wether they want to give anybody early access.We do signups every patch cycle for modders to apply to be part of early access. This patch cycle has around 45 modders in it. We don't require them to update on patch day, this is just something to make modder's lives easier around releases. Expect there to be a list on the Stellaris forums of mods that update, as they update, for the first week or two after release.
Depending on how big the mod team is, how big the patch hits the mod (let's say you have a flag mod, it won't be affected by a remake of armies and ground combat, but a new method for creating those flags would wreak havoc) and how busy the modders are in real life, you could look at different scenarios and ETAs. Some mods might still work though so you'll need to check them individually and go for a few trial run.