[2022] Docklands Export/Import Contract Warning/Missing Resources

I'm not an expert at this game, so I don't know if this is a bug or something I don't understand. Basically, even though I have enough goods to cover an export/import contract, only a small fraction is exported, and I am given a contract warning that I am missing resources.

1. In the first screenshot, Captain Tobias is arriving, and I have plenty of goods to cover the contract. I need 181 weapons, and I have set minimum stock to 200. (I am sending everything beyond that to my main island with a trade route, if that makes any difference. However, I am doing this on other islands with no issues.)
2. In the second screenshot, as soon as Tobias arrives, I am given the contract warning and only a small fraction of the weapons is exported.
3. In the third screenshot, Tobias is departing, and I'm hovering over the tooltip.

So far, this is the only contract that is affected, and I have docklands on three other islands exporting just fine. I can't understand what is wrong with this contract.

(I'm getting an error attaching screenshots. Sigh.)