We did pretty heavy analysis for multiple updates. Most will try out the update for one or two patches and return to the champion they love best.
Yeah but this also factors in the performance of the update. If the update is badly done obviously people won't play it. That's like when aatrox received his rework and people disliked him because he was finally strong the patches before the rework and didn't need it at the time. If you gut the core champ and make him boring/weaker then obviously people won't play him. Same with aurelion when you guys removed his stars and changed his E, he was a lot less fun to play and the core of him was removed. Obviously not as many will like him?
We factored that in and we look at every update distinctly!