It is always great to see players figuring out all the math so quickly! From my spot checks, what I see looks right to me regarding your math (though I could have missed something!).
The tricky thing to account for in rewards is the upgrades, though since we have published the upgrade chances then it should be possible to build the table.
Another thing you might want to consider for your analysis is accounting for agency: if you add in a multiplier to random rewards, but not to wildcard rewards, then you can see how the tables change for players that value random content at different levels compared to an equivalent wildcard.
Great stuff!