There is even accurately datamined info on Lastepochtools.com, confirmed by devs to be close, not 100%, but very close. Topic isnt that old, just browse back a bit. Confirmed to work like this in many posts over time though, but Im not gonna go looking for one for you 😉
Just for clarity, I don't think we've ever commented on the LP chance numbers from LETools. There was an infographic post a while back that made a statistics math mistake which made almost every number off. That was the post we commented on to be wrong.