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PhreakRiot

PhreakRiot



14 May

Rumble is not a jungler part 2 - Phreak

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Originally posted by maronics

This logic only works in practice mode looking at the damage numbers on the dummy and disregards any "real" world factors of the movement speed or the life steal you mention.

What you're comparing here is two cars on a straight line, ofc the one with more raw power will come out ahead (ignoring downforce/acceleration/grip/whatever for simplicity) while on an actual track with bends n shit the result will be something completely incomparable.

Except in this case I'm also quoting practice times and the Ferrarri is still outperforming.

But don't worry, keep choosing the weaker car because its handling is slightly better. Sorry you can't catch the other racers in the straights.

Royal Never Give Up vs. Cloud9 / MSI 2021 - Rumble Stage / Post-Match Discussion

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I never doubted them!

Rumble is not a jungler part 2 - Phreak

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Originally posted by putsandstock

344 is actually not really enough for effects of this size. A 95% confidence interval for the win rate (assuming the “true value” is reasonably close to 50%) is about 2/sqrt(n) wide (using some basic repeated Bernoulli trials as the underlying model), over 10% for this sample size, which in isolation is terrible. People in general tend to underestimate variance and overestimate how good a sample size is, so it’s important to at least come up with some sort of statistical basis behind claims that a sample seems “large enough.”

You can definitely argue that in this case we have other (much more statistically significant!) supporting data, such as extrapolation from win rates and trends in other Elos, which will strongly affect our priors on the topic in question (so perhaps a 95% interval is overkill, and we’d be satisfied with a much weaker level). But taken by itself, a sample size of 344 is not nearly enough to measure effects whose size is <5%.

Thank you for this. It's been so long since I did any real hypothesis testing that I've forgotten all rules of thumb for confidence intervals and such.

Intuitively, I really tried to only use samples with at least 1,000 games. That's less than ~6% wr change 95% of the time, which is somewhat reasonable as long as you're not trying to take small movements as telling.

Rumble is not a jungler part 2 - Phreak

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Originally posted by Insanity_Incarnate

Can confirm, I'm not good at League of Legends.

Hahahaha <3

Rumble is not a jungler part 2 - Phreak

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Originally posted by Fedacking

Quick question thought: other junglers (in particular Rek Sai for this case) provide better winrate in masters+ and have better azir curves. Shouldn't they be played in jungle and lee sin not be picked?

I think Rek'Sai is likely an underpicked jungler.

[Satire] I have irrefutable statistics to prove that Nautilus is the worst champion at MSI.

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But what does his solo queue win rate say?

Rumble is not a jungler part 2 - Phreak

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Originally posted by MrCrazyVenom

Is there a reason u focused on mid lee sin instead of top lee sin?

So far at MSI by my calculations there have been 12 lee sin picks with most (7/12) going top lane. Now I'm sold that jungle lee can be better than mid lee. However why aren't you focusing on comparing top lee sin to jungle lee sin?

I touched on this in the video, I'm pretty sure but Lee Sin top has the exact same issue as with mid.

Rumble is not a jungler part 2 - Phreak

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Originally posted by [deleted]

[deleted]

Headshot stack do not fall off outside of combat. Caitlyn is thus constantly somewhere between 0-5 stack of headshot in any given teamfight. Thus, any team fight with only two auto attacks automatically supports +AD.

The math is equivalent. Neither AS nor AD favors Headshot damage output.

This would change if Headshots fell off outside of combat (e.g. Master Yi passive, Kraken Slayer) but they don't.

Rumble is not a jungler part 2 - Phreak

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Originally posted by AfrikanCorpse

So, every single non-subjective form of proof is on my side. And on the other is... The opinion of someone who didn't make playoffs.

Really?

If anyone can be right/wrong (according to your video), regardless of their level of play, why are you discrediting someone's opinion because they didn't make playoffs?

Incredibly hypocritical.

E: props for the edit

Yeah, you're right, it's a cheap shot.

Rumble is not a jungler part 2 - Phreak

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Originally posted by HuntedWolf

Slightly off topic, which website do you use for your data Phreak?

lolalytics. Lets me do a lot more item and rune delving, plus has more back patches.


13 May

Rumble is not a jungler part 2 - Phreak

Comment

Originally posted by bobbybobsen

/u/PhreakRiot Good video, and good to see you explain yourself in a better format than twitter. However you missed the mark on Lillia: Lillia did in fact get a nerf - in patch 11.6 her ult CD was increased by 20 seconds at all levels, and this nerf lines up with her decline in pro play.

That's a good point and one I overlooked.

Rumble is not a jungler part 2 - Phreak

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Originally posted by RiceOnAStick

That point was just an aside/additional note as to why the data might not be relevant. Rumble as a champion is disproportionately strong early (especially midlane) because of his ability to fight anyone pre-6 and tilt 2v2s in his favor. Because Korean soloq has a tendency to FF, early game champions are more advantaged there. You can frequently see this difference in stats sites; op.gg almost always rates champs very differently than how lolalytics/u.gg tier them with their global statistics.

He's not excluding Korea's winrates from the calculation; his initial argument was based around global winrates which obviously include Korea. He's talking about why using Korean soloq as the statistical model alone could be problematic.

At least from my understanding.

That's more or less accurate. Though unless I mistyped above, Rumble jungle is actually more early-game skewed. In other words, Rumble jungle falls off faster and harder than Rumble mid. So any server where players FF early is biased toward making Rumble look good.

In general, yes, there are lots of factors that keep solo queue from looking just like pro play. Some of them are server behavior. But we can softly cover many of them by grabbing data globally and comparing the skill levels of players and seeing if that gives us any results. Azir is our poster-child here.

Rumble is not a jungler part 2 - Phreak

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Originally posted by Cahecher

My point wasn't to select the data that suits me, but rather to point out that there are obvious regional differences, that are core to the conversation at hand.

Another thing, the data we are looking at is very different. For example, if we look at the data filtered by korean server from u.gg (my filters: vs all champions, soloq, 11.9, KR):

11.9.

  • P+. Jungle w/r: 48,86, games: 47k. Midlane w/r 51.55%, games: 15.5k. W/r diff 2.69

  • D+ Jungle w/r: 49.99, games: 11.2k. Midlane w/r 51.8%, games: 3.2k. W/r diff 1.81

  • D2+ Jungle w/r: 51.05, games: 5.6k. Midlane w/r 52.58%, games: 1.3k. W/r diff 1.53

  • M+ Jungle w/r: 51.07, games: 2.5k. Midlane w/r 52.03%, games: 0.5k. W/r diff 0.96 (though it is an anomaly, the number of games is too low)

I didn't use 11.10 in the reply even though the numbers there strongly support my point, but the amount of games is insignificant since the patch is too...

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I appreciate the nuance added. I was using lolalytics.com for most of my info since it has a very convenient 30-day filter to grab lots of information any time you're looking at a more unpopular pick or more constrained brackets.

Rumble is not a jungler part 2 - Phreak

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Originally posted by Rogue009

Sorry but how is 49 games a large enough sample size? For all we know half the losses on those could have been due to autofilled people.

That's exactly my point.

Rumble is not a jungler part 2 - Phreak

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Originally posted by Jinxzy

I have no doubt that Rumble junglers are relatively inexperienced. But unless I see an Azir curve, I'm not buying it.

Hey Phreak, on somewhat the same topic:

In your Lee Sin example, you show Jungle/Mid winrate differential favoring jungle the higher the Elo. Could one not make the argument that this is because Lee does have an "Azir curve", in both mid & jungle, but it's significantly more prominent in jungle because junglers (especially high level) has years of experience on this champ, where all the solo laners are only just picking it up?

My hypothesis is somewhat contrary to that. I just looked up Lee Jungle and Lee mid as stand-alone picks and jungle has an Azir curve while mid has a very slight Garen curve. (it's pretty flat, all within 1%, but still trending down)

To be direct about the hypothesis, though: I expect Azir curves to be pronounced on any new champion (or new in role). Higher MMR players play more games thus are on average more practiced thus on average are less hampered by being mechanically bad at the champion. Admittedly, this is somewhat of a stretch since we're measuring several different things (hands, brain, coordination, etc.) through the same thing. But the end result is still ultimately the same from what I can see so far.

Rumble is not a jungler part 2 - Phreak

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Originally posted by Least_Candle5223

Except what statistics you choose to look at, and how you gather statistics is a system of bias. My sisters PHD is literally about how Big Data skews people’s perspective because they perceive statistics as objective truth. I feel like he’s doing something similar here where he makes stats seem like an objective truth.

That's a really valid point. There are a ton of champions I looked up and prepped graphics for that didn't fit the script purely for length than anything else. Malphite and Sion both have Garen curves and very low pro win rates. That said, I don't put a lot of faith in +/-5% pro win rates and even if they're true, there are good explanations.

I'll say that Azir and Garen were the first champions I looked up and didn't know their data for certain before collection. I also didn't know what I expected from Lillia when I gathered it.

Rumble is not a jungler part 2 - Phreak

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Originally posted by tflo91

I’ll play monkey in the middle here

The problem with his initial take is that he selectively removed data from his statistics by removing all of RNG’s rumble games because “they were free wins”. Sorry? But they were still wins and he didn’t remove lesser teams that picked Rumble that also stood no chance of winning. That means any conclusions you draw from the sample will be flawed. The bottom line is that in group stages, the close games that can be used as champion data are few and far between. If he really wanted to get his point across, he could have simply used c9 vs DK as his case study, and suggest a better jungler Canyon could play in Rumbles place.

LS also likes to say how drafts should be assessed on champions being executed perfectly. While that sentiment can be appreciated and even applied in trading card games and even which draft is technically better ON PAPER, humans are inherently not perfect. League is much more open ended than any TCG and at one si...

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The tweet wasn't meant to be a well-formed argument. Maybe I should have known better, but it's not like I expected the topic to blow up.

Rumble is not a jungler part 2 - Phreak

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Originally posted by topdrogon

Absolutely, you’re 100% correct on this. It’s impossible to play test every situation.

But (and I might be wrong on this) it shouldn’t be hard to play test versus META champs and META styles that are common in pro. You just need to beat what’s common and what you’re opponent are trying to do - you aren’t trying to beat a 99.9999% optimally drafting and playing AI.

For example, you can just play test Rumble jungle versus Lucian or Tristana mid or Leona or Alistar support. Of course different champs have important differences and nuances, both both have similar flavors/playstyles.

Similarly, you can play test the rumble-Morgana and Rumble-Udyr jungle matchup in customs in isolation from laners and then in in-houses with laners. Again, I’m not a league expert, so I’ll leave it to the pro players and coaches who have experience in the various ways champs need to be tested as to the best way for doing this.

Most importantly, I genuinely think your ana...

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Generally agree, yeah.

Rumble is not a jungler part 2 - Phreak

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Originally posted by Puzzleheaded_Bowl386

The difference grows with player skill, and it's bad for Rumble jungle.

That is true when we are comparing Rumble Mid against Rumble jungle, but imo for the most part they should be considered on their own, because:

Sure, maybe Morgana (liked you suggested in the video) is the best jungler, maybe mid rumble is the absolutely best champion in the game. I think the part that people most take offense to/disagree with is that Rumble jungle is just bad.

And Rumble Mid has the "Azir curve", whereas Rumble Jungle looks to either have the bellcurve (if we want to interpret into the -0.5 between Plat and Master/include Bronze, Silver) or is pretty much completely flat (past gold).

Rumble jungle is underperforming very simlarily among multiple brackets of play. And that flat underperformance can again be attributed to players having less experience on the champion than would be ideal.

One final note, somewhat unrelated: I alw...

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I'd propose it's due to his actual crowd control profile and lack of a real role on the team. He's there providing damage when teams already have champions who do that. FWIW I looked up Rumble jungle's highest winrate mid laners after hearing Pabu's interview about AD mids. The top of the list are all melee AD mids (Nocturne, Renekton, Sett, etc). In some cases, those champions just have very high win rates, so beware the biases, but it also feels accurate: Teams don't need substantial magic damage out of the jungle if they already have it in mid. They don't need a CC-less jungler because how exactly are you going to gank someone who already builds Mercury Treads for the lane matchup? It's the exact same reason people like Taliyah-Renekton and Elise-Renekton.

Rumble is not a jungler part 2 - Phreak

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Originally posted by qo3s17

I'm seeing 51.45% winrate over 344 Challenger games on 11.10 from u.gg but maybe the site is wrong? 344 games probably a big enough sample size to read into the variation, but again I'm not sure. Also not sure how 51.45% that compares to the avg jungler.

I think the intuition has been presented elsewhere, and makes sense to me: people in Bronze-Master are not learning the champ well/fast enough, so the trend is they get punished harder as they get closer to master; then from Master-Chall the players are learning the champ quickly and getting rewarded for it in terms of winrate.

I think this intuition makes a lot of sense because even in pro play junglers have been getting criticized for not playing the champion optimally (heat management during clear, equalizer placement, etc.) so it makes sense that soloq players below Challenger are also having a rough time.

That's a pretty reasonable count of games. I was using lolalytics.

Regardless, I'd want to see more games when we're trying to nail down pretty small deviations. For reference, across 11.9 Rumble mid was 6.7% higher win rate across the patch for challenger (54.7, 48.0) according to u.gg. Right now, Rumble mid is sitting at 45.5 on that site, which is clearly not accurate.

That said, I'd expect some growth, but the changes seem too big. For reference, across all of 11.9 according to u.gg, challenger and GM Rumble jungle were within 0.7%. GM to master was under 0.1%. Master to diamond, 1%. That low-difference trend continues all the way down to Silver. In 11.10, that trend is the same except for the challenger-GM divide is 5%. Nothing makes me believe that Challenger players suddenly uniquely excel at Rumble after May 12. I believe the problem is more with sample size.